老白汾系列及巴拿马系列的是山西汾酒腰部主打产品，其中，老白汾系列价格区间定位在100-200 元，涵盖了老白汾10 年、15 年、20 年以及老白汾醇柔等多款产品，巴拿马价格区间则定位在200-400 元。2022 年，汾酒集团对其产品战略进行了重大调整，从"抓两头带中间"转变为"抓青花、强腰部、稳玻汾"，进一步强化了巴拿马系列和老白汾系列作为腰部支撑的地位。公司通过控制腰部产品市场投放量、提升产品品质、不断优化产品结构等，为公司的稳健发展提供了有力支撑。Key points:
Incident: On June 4, prices of various products such as Laobaifen and Panama under Fenjiu, Shanxi increased. On ****e Fenjiu Sales Company Dealer Conference was held in Kunming, Yunnan with the theme of “Deeply Implementing the Fenjiu Revitalization Program and Comprehensively Promoting High-Quality Market Development”. At the conference, the company announced that starting from June 20, the company's 10-year-old Baifen, 15-year-old Baifen, and Qiunrou old Baifen will be reduced by 30 yuan from the original, and the Panamanian 20-year single box will be increased by 60 yuan.
Comment:
The Laobaifen series and the Panamanian series are the main products in the Shanxi Fenjiu waist. Among them, the price range of the Laobaifen series is 100-200 yuan, covering various products such as Laobaifen 10, 15, 20, and Laobaifen alcohol soft, while the Panamanian price range is 200-400 yuan. In 2022, Fenjiu Group made major adjustments to its product strategy, changing from “holding the middle of the two headbands” to “catching blue and white, strengthening the waist, and stabilizing the face”, further strengthening the position of the Panama series and the old Baifen series as lumbar support. The company provides strong support for the steady development of the company by controlling the market volume of waist products, improving product quality, and continuously optimizing the product structure.
Driven by the “double waist” product strategy, the Laobaifen and Panama series have become important pillars of the Fenjiu Group in the liquor market, supporting the company with a market share of nearly 10 billion dollars. Furthermore, in recent years, in a market environment where consumption tends to be rational, liquor has performed well in the popular price range, and sales of the Laobaifen and Panama series have achieved rapid growth. Looking ahead to 2024, Shanxi Fenjiu proposed a new target for revenue growth of about 20% year-on-year, and price adjustments and market strategy optimization for products such as the Laobaifen series are undoubtedly one of the key measures to achieve this goal.
Investment advice
The company continues to deepen marketing reforms, accelerate channel expansion, focus on the national market, and accelerate the nationalization process. We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 387.54, 464.79, and 55.408 billion yuan, respectively, up 21.4%, 19.9%, and 19.2% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to mother was 133.25 billion yuan, 167.15 billion yuan, and 20.531 billion yuan, respectively, up 27.7%, 25.4%, and 22.8% year-on-year. EPS was 10.92, 13.70, and 16.83 yuan respectively. For the first coverage, we gave the company an “gain” rating.
Risk warning
Macroeconomic recovery fell short of expectations; risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; food safety issues; and increased market competition.
