What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? Firstly, we'd want to identify a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and then alongside that, an ever-increasing base of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. In light of that, when we looked at Johnson Controls International (NYSE:JCI) and its ROCE trend, we weren't exactly thrilled.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on Johnson Controls International is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.069 = US$2.1b ÷ (US$43b - US$14b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

So, Johnson Controls International has an ROCE of 6.9%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Building industry average of 17%.

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Johnson Controls International compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Johnson Controls International .

What Does the ROCE Trend For Johnson Controls International Tell Us?

Over the past five years, Johnson Controls International's ROCE and capital employed have both remained mostly flat. It's not uncommon to see this when looking at a mature and stable business that isn't re-investing its earnings because it has likely passed that phase of the business cycle. So don't be surprised if Johnson Controls International doesn't end up being a multi-bagger in a few years time. With fewer investment opportunities, it makes sense that Johnson Controls International has been paying out a decent 36% of its earnings to shareholders. Unless businesses have highly compelling growth opportunities, they'll typically return some money to shareholders.

The Bottom Line On Johnson Controls International's ROCE

In summary, Johnson Controls International isn't compounding its earnings but is generating stable returns on the same amount of capital employed. Investors must think there's better things to come because the stock has knocked it out of the park, delivering a 105% gain to shareholders who have held over the last five years. Ultimately, if the underlying trends persist, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger going forward.

If you'd like to know more about Johnson Controls International, we've spotted 3 warning signs, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.

While Johnson Controls International isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.