FUTU Morning Post

US stock market preview | NVIDIA continues to rise nearly 2% before the market opens! Is expected to hit a new historic high again; the bulls are coming! Goldman Sachs expects large influx of capital into the US stock market in the third quarter.

Futu News · Jun 6 20:08

全球宏观

周四美股盘前，三大期指涨跌不一

做多力量来袭！高盛预计三季度将有“大量资金”涌入美股

高盛的交易部门表示，来自被动型股权配置的大量资金将在7月初涌入股市，推动股市在整个夏初持续上涨。高盛全球市场部董事总经理兼策略专家Scott Rubner周三表示：“新的季度(第三季度)，新的半年(下半年)，正是大量资金迅速涌入股市的时候。”此外，Rubner表示，自1928年以来，7月的前15天一直是股市一年中最好的两周交易期，而在7月17日之后，这种情况往往会消退。

分析师：“金发姑娘”情景仍存，小心明日非农冲击

昨日，加拿大央行先于欧洲央行，成为本轮降息周期中首个降息的G7成员国。美联储下周亦将召开会议，市场目前定价美联储今年几乎有两次25个基点的降息，9月降息的可能性为68%。Legal And General investment Management亚太区投资策略师Ben Bennett表示："我们仍处于金发姑娘的情景，因此不利的经济消息对股市有利，因美联储的降息再次回到选项上。"投资者的注意力很快将转向定于周五公布的5月非农报告，市场预计将增加18.5万个就业岗位。

美前财长萨默斯辣评“2024大选”：特朗普当选将大幅推高通胀！

美国前财政部长萨默斯（Larry Summers）日前表示，如果前总统特朗普在今年的大选中获胜，将大幅推高通货膨胀。萨默斯列举了特朗普提出的政策，他认为这些政策可能会推高物价。他说，他担心的是特朗普团队“对美联储独立性的不尊重、美元将持续走强、对减税的渴望——但没有任何削减开支的计划承诺，以及过去半个世纪以来前所未有的关税政策。”此外，他还警告说，特朗普的移民政策可能导致的劳动力供应受限，也将导致通货膨胀。

欧央行今日开启9年来首次降息！或加速美联储降息进程

欧洲央行如期降息25个基点，将三大利率分别降至4.25%、3.75%、4.50%，为2019年以来首次降息，是G7成员国中第二个降息的央行。欧洲央行此举将紧跟加拿大央行步伐，后者于周三将利率从5%下调至4.75%。瑞典和瑞士央行今年也降低了利率。这些央行担忧较高利率阻碍经济增长。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前涨跌互现，英伟达再涨近2%

英伟达盘前涨近2%，势将再创历史新高

$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$盘前上涨近2%报1246.8美元，开盘势将再创历史新高，$微软 (MSFT.US)$、$苹果 (AAPL.US)$盘前微跌。英伟达市值昨日超越苹果，位居全球市值排行第二，仅次于微软。

特斯拉得州超级工厂4680电池电芯累计产量达5000万颗

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$宣布，美国得克萨斯州超级工厂4680电池电芯累计产量突破5000万颗。

阿斯麦年内交付台积电新型High-NA EU机

荷兰晶片设备制造商$阿斯麦 (ASML.US)$表示，今年将向$台积电 (TSM.US)$交付最新型的高数值孔径极紫外光机(High-NA EUV)。ASML最新的先进晶片制造设备每部要价3.5亿欧元，重量相当于2架空中巴士A320飞机，将用于生产驱动人工智能(AI)应用程式和先进消费电子产品的晶片。ASML发言人表示，财务总监Roger Dassen最近在电话会议向分析师称，公司两大客户台积电和英特尔(Intel)今年底前将收到High-NA EU机。

诺瓦瓦克斯医药盘前续涨近18%，预计9月为更新的新冠疫苗交付做好准备

$诺瓦瓦克斯医药 (NVAX.US)$盘前飚涨近18%，该股昨日大幅收涨超18%。消息面上，美国食品和药物管理局顾问小组周三投票同意推荐更新针对今年早些时候占主导地位的JN.1变异株的Covid-19疫苗。此外诺瓦瓦克斯预计将在9月为针对JN.1变异株的疫苗交付做好准备，首批货物计划于八月抵达美国仓库。

LululemonQ1业绩超预期，上调财年盈利指引并提高回购规模

$Lululemon Athletica (LULU.US)$第一财季净营收22.1亿美元，分析师预期22亿美元；每股收益2.54美元，分析师预期2.39美元。该公司预计，本财年净营收在107亿至108亿美元之间，分析师预期107.6亿美元；每股收益在14.27至14.47美元之间，此前预期为14至14.2美元。此外，该公司将股票回购规模提高10亿美元。

Lululemon盘前涨超9%。

诺基亚老人机被年轻人疯抢

据报道，2024年5月8日，$诺基亚 (NOK.US)$时隔25年推出改进后的3210，售价379元，短短2天就宣布售罄。5月31日晚8点，诺基亚3210再度开卖，不到两个小时就被售空。今天（6月6日）上午10点，诺基亚少量现货再次发售，1个小时就又被抢空。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前普跌，蔚来跌超3%

高盛：予台积电“买入”评级，技术领先地位稳固确保其价值销售策略

高盛发表报告指出，$台积电 (TSM.US)$目前面临着更高的成本压力，正更努力地实施价值销售(selling its value)战略，同时为了实现长期毛利率达53%或以上的目标，公司可能试图将成本转嫁给客户。该行对台积电台股的目标价为975新台币，认为公司技术领先地位稳固，予“买入”评级。

台积电盘前再涨近2%。

蔚来2024年Q1总营收99.09亿元，同比下滑7.2%

$蔚来 (NIO.US)$2024年Q1经调整净亏损为49.03亿元，去年同期经调整净亏损为41.50亿元。蔚来Q2交付指引为5.4万辆至5.6万辆，同比增长129.6%至138.1%。蔚来Q2总营收指引为165.87亿元至171.35亿元，同比增长89.1%至95.3%。

蔚来盘前一度跌近8%，现跌幅收窄至3%。

网易《魔兽世界：巫妖王之怒》料本月内开服

$网易 (NTES.US)$旗下《魔兽世界》官方微博表示，国服删档技术测试“巫妖王之怒”将于下周二(6月11日)开启，为正式回归做最后的准备。通过本次测试，相信“巫妖王之怒”可以在本月内正式开服。

网易盘前涨超1%。

天猫：5月88VIP新增会员数同比增长超3倍

$阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$天猫方面披露，618期间88VIP新增会员数暴涨，2024年5月，88VIP新增会员数月环比增长超过2倍，同比增幅超过3倍。阿里最新财报显示，88VIP会员人数规模已超3500万，同比双位数增长。新增会员中，00后开卡人数较去年同期上涨533%。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

20:15：欧洲央行公布利率决议。

20:30：美国4月贸易帐(亿美元)、美国截至6月1日当周初请失业金人数(万)。

20:45：欧洲央行行长拉加德召开货币政策新闻发布会。

次日凌晨01:30：美国财长耶伦在“人工智能与金融稳定”的会议上发表主旨演讲。

编辑/emilysong

Global macro

On Thursday pre-market trading, the three major indices saw mixed gains and losses.

Bullish forces are on the rise! Goldman Sachs expects a large amount of funds to pour into the U.S. stock market in the third quarter.

Goldman Sachs's trading department said that a large amount of funds from passive equity allocations will flow into the stock market in early July, pushing the stock market to continue to rise throughout the early summer. Scott Rubner, Global Head of Market at Goldman Sachs and Strategy Expert, said on Wednesday: "The new quarter (Q3), the new half of the year (H2) is the time when a large amount of funds rush into the stock market rapidly." In addition, Rubner said that the first 15 days of July have been the best two weeks of stock trading of the year since 1928, and this situation will often fade after July 17th.

Analyst: "Golden Girl" scenario still exists, beware of tomorrow's non-farm impact.

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates ahead of the European Central Bank, becoming the first G7 member country to cut interest rates in this round of rate cuts. The Federal Reserve will also hold a meeting next week, and the market is currently pricing in a nearly two 25-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, with a 68% chance of a rate cut in September. Ben Bennett, Investment Strategist for the Asia Pacific region at Legal and General Investment Management, said: "We are still in the Goldilocks scenario, so negative economic news is good for the stock market, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are back on the table." Investor attention will soon turn to the non-farm payrolls report for May, which is expected to increase employment by 185,000.

Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers criticizes "2024 election": Trump's election will significantly push up inflation!

Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers recently stated that if former President Trump were to win this year's election, it would significantly push up inflation. Summers listed the policies proposed by Trump, which he believes could push up prices. He said he was concerned about Trump's team's "disrespect for the independence of the Federal Reserve, the continuing strength of the dollar, the desire for tax cuts -- but no commitment to any spending cuts -- and unprecedented tariff policies in the past half century." In addition, he also warned that Trump's immigration policy could limit labor supply and lead to inflation.

The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time in 9 years today! It may accelerate the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts process.

The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, with the three major interest rates cut to 4.25%, 3.75%, and 4.50%, the first interest rate cut since 2019 and the second central bank to cut interest rates among the G7 member countries. The move follows the footsteps of the Bank of Canada, which lowered its rate from 5% to 4.75% on Wednesday. The central banks of Sweden and Switzerland have also lowered interest rates this year, fearing that high rates will hinder economic growth.

Hot news

Growth tech sees mixed gains and losses in pre-market trading, and Nvidia rises by nearly 2%.

Nvidia's pre-market rose nearly 2%, and it is expected to hit a new record high.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It rose nearly 2% before the market, reporting at $1246.8, and is poised to set a new historical high at the opening.$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$, $Apple (AAPL.US)$A slight decline in pre-market trading. Nvidia's market cap surpassed Apple's yesterday, ranking second in the global market cap rankings, second only to Microsoft.

Tesla's Texas Gigafactory has produced a total of 50 million cells of the 4680 battery.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Announced that the cumulative output of 4680 battery cells in the Texas super factory has exceeded 50 million.

ASML Holding will deliver a new High-NA EU machine to Taiwan Semiconductor within the year.

Dutch chip equipment manufacturer$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$stated that it will deliver the latest High-NA EUV (High-NA EUV) to$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ASML's latest advanced chip manufacturing equipment costs 350 million euros per unit, is equivalent to the weight of two Airbus A320 aircraft, and will be used to produce chips that drive artificial intelligence (AI) applications and advanced consumer electronics products. An ASML spokesperson said that Roger Dassen, the company's CFO, recently told analysts in a conference call that its two major customers, TSMC and Intel, will receive the High-NA EU machine by the end of this year.

$Novavax Pharmaceuticals (NVAX.US)$, which is expected to be prepared for the updated COVID-19 vaccine in September, continued to rise nearly 18% before the market.

$Novavax (NVAX.US)$Lululemon's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, raised earnings guidance for the year, and increased stock buybacks.

Net revenue for the first quarter was $2.21 billion, with analysts expecting $2.2 billion; earnings per share were $2.54, with analysts expecting $2.39. The company expects net revenue to be between $10.7 billion and $10.8 billion this fiscal year, with analysts expecting $10.76 billion; earnings per share to be between $14.27 and $14.47, compared to the previous expectation of $14 to $14.2 per share. In addition, the company increased its stock buyback program by $1 billion.

$Lululemon Athletica (LULU.US)$Lululemon rose more than 9% before the market.

Lululemon rose more than 9% in pre-market trading.

Nokia Oyj's Elderly Phone is being snatched up by young people.

According to reports, on May 8, 2024,$Nokia Oyj (NOK.US)$After 25 years, the improved Nokia 3210 was priced at 379 yuan and was sold out in just 2 days. On the evening of May 31st at 8pm, the Nokia 3210 went on sale again and was sold out in less than two hours. At 10am today (June 6), Nokia released a small amount of inventory again, which was sold out in an hour.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

China concept stocks were generally down in pre-market trading, with NIO falling more than 3%.

Goldman Sachs: recommends a "buy" rating for Taiwan Semiconductor due to its leading position in technology and solid value sales strategy.

Goldman Sachs issued a report saying that it is facing higher cost pressures and is working harder to implement a value sales strategy. At the same time, the company may try to transfer costs to customers in order to achieve its long-term gross margin target of 53% or more. The bank's target price for Taiwan Semiconductor Taiwan shares is NT $ 975, believing that the company's leading technology position is solid and giving a "buy" rating.$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Taiwan Semiconductor rose nearly 2% before the market.

In Q1 2024, the adjusted net loss was 4.903 billion yuan, compared with an adjusted net loss of 4.15 billion yuan in the same period last year. NIO's Q2 delivery guidance is 54,000 to 56,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 129.6% to 138.1%. NIO's Q2 total revenue guidance is RMB 16.587 billion to RMB 17.135 billion, a year-on-year increase of 89.1% to 95.3%.

Nio Inc's total revenue for Q1 2024 was 9.909 billion yuan, a 7.2% year-on-year decrease.

$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$NIO fell nearly 8% before the market, narrowing to a 3% drop.

NetEase's "World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King" is expected to open this month. The official Weibo of "World of Warcraft" stated that the technical test for the domestic server wipe will start next Tuesday (June 11), and it will be the final preparation for the official return. Through this test, it is believed that "Wrath of the Lich King" can be officially launched this month. NetEase rose more than 1% before the market.

20:30: US April trade account (100 million US dollars), US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 1 (10,000).

$NetEase (NTES.US)$20:15: The European Central Bank announced its interest rate decision. 20:45: European Central Bank President Lagarde held a monetary policy press conference. 01:30 the next day: US Treasury Secretary Yellen delivered a keynote speech at the conference on "Artificial Intelligence and Financial Stability".

Netease rose more than 1% before the market.

In May, the number of new memberships added to Tmall's 88VIP program increased by more than triple compared to the same period last year.

$Alibaba (BABA.US)$During the 618 period, the number of new members of Taobao's 88VIP surged. In May 2024, the monthly growth rate of new 88VIP members increased by more than double compared to the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate increased by more than triple. Alibaba's latest financial report shows that the scale of 88VIP membership has exceeded 35 million, with double-digit year-on-year growth. Among the new members, the number of post-00s who opened cards increased by 533% compared to the same period last year.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

20:15: The European Central Bank announced the interest rate decision.

20:30: U.S. April trade account (in hundred million U.S. dollars), U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 1 (in ten thousand).

20:45: European Central Bank President Lagarde holds a monetary policy news conference.

At 01:30 the next day: U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen delivers a keynote speech on "Artificial Intelligence and Financial Stability" at a conference.

Editor/emilysong

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