YANKUANG ENERGY(1171.HK):UPGRADE TO BUY AS RECENT WEAKNESS OFFERS GOOD ENTRY OPPORTUNITY
YANKUANG ENERGY(1171.HK):UPGRADE TO BUY AS RECENT WEAKNESS OFFERS GOOD ENTRY OPPORTUNITY
While the recent placement of H shares caught the market by surprise, it eliminates the risk of further H share placement in the coming months. Although the recent acquisitions of a coal mining machine company and an online logistics platform are not done at attractive valuations, the deals are relatively small and may bring synergy over the longer term. We trim our 2024-26 EPS forecasts by 2-3% to reflect the impact of share placement and recent acquisitions. At current price, the company's H shares offer attractive average dividend yield of 6.4% for 2024-26E. Hence, we upgrade the company to BUY with target price at HK$20.53.
儘管最近的H股配售讓市場感到意外，但消除了未來幾個月內進一步的H股配售風險。雖然最近收購了一家煤礦機械公司和一家在線物流平台的估值並不太佳，但交易規模相對較小，並且未來可能帶來協同效應。我們將2024-26年的每股收益預測下調2-3%，以反映股票發行和最近收購的影響。目前價格下，公司的H股爲2024-26年提供6.4%的平均股息收益率，因此，我們提升了公司的買入評級，並將目標價定爲20.53港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Yankuang did a top-up share placement of 285m H shares at HK$17.39 per share to raise about HK$4.96bn after market close on Monday. It caught the market by surprise as it made more sense for the company to place A shares as the latter were trading at 39% premium to H shares back then. While it looks right on surface, it is practically much more troublesome to do A shares placement due to the lengthy approval process. The good thing is the risk of further placement of H shares is removed for at least the coming three months based on the undertaking of the major shareholder.
兗礦於週一市場收盤後以17.39港元/股的價格增發了2.85億H股，籌集了約49.6億港元。這讓市場感到意外，因爲更有道理的做法是發A股，當時A股的價格比H股高39%。儘管表面上看起來是正確的，但由於A股配售的審批流程繁瑣，實際上要麻煩得多。好的一面是根據主要股東的承諾，至少在未來三個月內不會再發行H股，這消除了進一步發行H股的風險。
Yankuang has agreed to acquire a 45% stake in Wubo Technology for RMB1,555m through a capital increase exercise according to its announcement last Friday. Wubo owns and operates an online logistics platform to match truck operators and cargo owners. In 2023, Wubo recorded turnover of RMB21.9bn, gross margin of 2% and net profit of RMB87.1m. Yankuang has got profit guarantee from the original shareholders of Wubo for 2024 to 2028, with net to increase from RMB98.8m in 2024 to RMB139.1m in 2028. The implied valuation of Wubo is 35x 2024E P/E. It is expensive compared to 18.2x 2024E P/E of Full Truck Alliance (YMM US/NR). However, we do not think the guaranteed profits include any synergy with Yankuang as the latter also owns and operates railways and ports. Yankuang has also listed intelligent logistics as one of its five development strategies in future.
根據上週五的公告，兗礦已同意通過資本增值來以15.55億元人民幣的價格收購臥博科技45%的股權。Wubo擁有並運營一家在線物流平台，用於匹配卡車運營商和貨主。2023年，Wubo實現營業額219億元，毛利率2%和淨利潤8710萬元。兗礦已經從Wubo的原股東那裏得到了2024年至2028年的利潤保證，淨利潤將從2024年的9,880萬元增加到2028年的13,910萬元。Wubo的隱含估值是35倍於2024年預計市盈率。與共享大卡車（YMM US/NR）的18.2倍2024年預計市盈率相比，這是昂貴的。然而，我們認爲保證的利潤不包括與兗礦的協同效應，因爲後者還擁有並運營鐵路和港口。兗礦還將智能物流列爲未來五大發展戰略之一。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Sharp fall in coal prices.
煤價暴跌。
Higher-than-expected costs.
成本高於預期。
Valuation
估值
We lower our target price for its H shares from HK$21.13 to HK$20.53 mainly to reflect the cuts in our EPS forecasts. We still set our target price at 5.5% average dividend yield for 2024-26E. This is equal to 9.6x 2024E P/E.
我們將其H股的目標價從21.13港元降至20.53港元，主要是爲了反映我們EPS預測的下調。我們仍然將我們的目標價定在2024-26年平均股息收益率爲5.5%左右。這等於2024年預計市盈率的9.6倍。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。