The global energy storage boom is booming, and European household storage inventories are nearing their end.
Benefiting from the rapid decline in optical storage prices, the reduction in the cost of raw materials on the cost side of energy storage systems, the gradual improvement of business models such as superimposed contract energy, and strong demand in the global new energy storage market in 2024, the Power Battery Application Branch Research Center and others are expected to increase by more than 50% year-on-year. Energy storage in Asia, Africa, and Latin America has recently contributed significant new volume. At the same time, European household storage Q2 storage will come to an end. We judge that Q3 industry-level orders will be repaired, and overseas industrial and commercial storage will also see a rapid increase in the near future.
The company is a pioneer in European account storage, with obvious brand channel advantages and a leading market share.
The company is a pioneer in household storage in Europe. It launched the first energy storage inverter in 2013, began research and development in 2016, and introduced energy storage batteries to the market in 2018. It is one of the few companies in the industry with integrated R&D capabilities for energy storage inverters and batteries. Brand recognition is high, the global marketing channel layout is perfect, and customer resources are abundant, including Hanwha Group, the world's leading supplier of photovoltaic modules and products, Krannich, a leading provider of the European PV industry, and Segen, the largest provider of photovoltaic products in the UK. The company now has a certain market share. According to EESA, the global household storage inverter market share was 5.1% in 2021.
Currently, we have plenty of cash on hand, actively developing new businesses, and the R&D cost ratio has risen sharply, and industrial and commercial savings are expected to contribute to the increase.
Since the second half of last year, the company has increased investment and actively expanded new scenarios such as overseas industrial and commercial savings. The R&D cost rate has risen sharply, from 4.4% in 2023Q2 to 15.4% in 2024Q1. Currently, industrial and commercial storage products already have mature solutions and customer needs, and we expect the new business to contribute additional volume in the future. At the same time, cash on hand as of 2024Q1 was 3.174 billion yuan, providing sufficient room for the company to expand against the market.
Investment advice: The household storage sector is one of the few overseas destinations with high profit flexibility. Demand is improving. The company is a pioneer in European account storage, and the new business is expected to contribute additional volume. We expect the company's revenue in 2024/2025/2026 to be 4.37/60.23/7.154 billion yuan, and profit attributable to mother is 4.37/7.19/927 billion yuan respectively. The PE corresponding to the current market value is 22.25X, 13.53X, and 10.49X, respectively.
Risk warning: the risk of large macroeconomic fluctuations, the risk of market development falling short of expectations, the risk of changes in international trade and industry policies, the risk of dependence on outsourced batteries, fluctuating raw material prices and supply risks, and the risk of increased market competition.