It hasn't been the best quarter for Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 14% in that time.    On the bright side the share price is up over the last half decade.  Unfortunately its return of 86% is below the market return of 94%.    

So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.  

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine.  One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, Assured Guaranty achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 32% per year.   The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 13% over the same period.  So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days.   This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 5.60.  

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

NYSE:AGO Earnings Per Share Growth June 4th 2024

We know that Assured Guaranty has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store?  This free interactive report on Assured Guaranty's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.  

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR).  The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested.  It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend.  We note that for Assured Guaranty the TSR over the last 5 years was 105%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above.  The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Assured Guaranty has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 52% in the last twelve months.   That's including the dividend.     Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 15% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times.  In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper.        While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important.   For instance, we've identified   3 warning signs for Assured Guaranty (1 is a bit unpleasant)  that you should be aware of.  

We will like Assured Guaranty better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.