Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.'  So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company.  Importantly, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK) does carry debt.  But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price.  Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers.  However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet.  Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences.  The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

What Is Graphic Packaging Holding's Debt?

As you can see below, Graphic Packaging Holding had US$5.54b of debt, at March 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail.    However, it also had US$136.0m in cash, and so its net debt is US$5.40b.  

NYSE:GPK Debt to Equity History June 4th 2024

How Strong Is Graphic Packaging Holding's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Graphic Packaging Holding had liabilities of US$2.37b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$6.13b due beyond that.   On the other hand, it had cash of US$136.0m and US$878.0m worth of receivables due within a year.   So its liabilities total US$7.48b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.  

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of US$8.70b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Graphic Packaging Holding's use of debt.  This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.  

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover).  Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Graphic Packaging Holding's debt is 3.0 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 5.2 times over.  Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage.        Graphic Packaging Holding grew its EBIT by 5.6% in the last year.  That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt.      The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt.  But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Graphic Packaging Holding can strengthen its balance sheet over time.  So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash.   So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow.    Over the last three years, Graphic Packaging Holding reported free cash flow worth 15% of its EBIT, which is really quite low.  That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.  

Our View

At the end of the day, we're far from enamoured with Graphic Packaging Holding's ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow or to handle its total liabilities.    But its EBIT growth rate is a slight positive.      Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Graphic Packaging Holding's debt is making it a bit risky.  Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt.    The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt.  However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it.   For instance, we've identified   2 warning signs for Graphic Packaging Holding (1 can't be ignored)  you should be aware of.  

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.