Bond Market Rallies As Recession Worries Mount, Rate Cut Bets Gain Steam Ahead Of Jobs Data
Bond Market Rallies As Recession Worries Mount, Rate Cut Bets Gain Steam Ahead Of Jobs Data
Long-dated U.S. Treasuries are rallying, breaking above a key downtrend that began in late 2023, fueled by recent soft economic data, which has led investors to reprice higher expectations on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September.
最近軟弱的經濟數據推動長期美國國債收益率回升，突破了從2023年底開始的關鍵下降趨勢，這使得投資者重新調整了對聯邦儲備委員會9月降息的預期。
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), a popular gauge for long-term bond performance, has climbed to $92 on Tuesday, eyeing its fourth consecutive day of gains.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT)是長期債券表現的一個熱門指標，週二上漲至92美元，目標是連續第四個交易日走高。
This recent spike has lifted TLT above its declining trend channel for 2024 and, crucially, above its 50-day moving average. These technical indicators suggest a potential trend reversal is underway.
這次漲幅將TLT提升到2024年下降趨勢通道以上，並且重要的是，超過了其50日移動平均線。這些技術指標表明一個潛在的趨勢反轉正在進行中。
Other ETFs that track long-term zero-coupon Treasuries, such as the Pimco 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (NYSE:ZROZ), have seen even higher increases in recent sessions, surging as much as 6% over the last four days.
此外，跟蹤長期的零息票國債的其他ETF，例如Pimco 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (NYSE: ZROZ)，近期漲幅更高，過去四天上漲了多達6％。
Chart: TLT ETF Rallies Above 50-Day Average, Snaps Bearish 2024 Trend
圖表：TLT ETF上漲超過50日均線，打破2024年看淡趨勢。
Weak Economic Data Fuels Bets On Fed Rate Cut in September
疲軟的經濟數據推動投注9月聯邦利率降息。
Recent economic data releases have fallen short of expectations, reigniting speculation that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates as early as September.
最近的經濟數據未能達到預期，重新引發了人們的猜測，認爲聯邦儲備委員會可能早在9月開始降息。
Last week, the second estimate for U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter delivered a downward revision from 1.6% to 1.3%. Additionally, the Chicago PMI business activity index showed its worst reading since May 2020.
上週，一季度美國GDP增長的第二次估算從1.6％下調至1.3％。此外，芝加哥PMI商業活動指數顯示自2020年5月以來的最差表現。
On Monday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for May extended the contractionary trend seen in April, also missing expectations.
週一，5月ISM製造業PMI延續了4月的萎縮趨勢，並未達到預期。
Tuesday brought news that the number of job openings in April 2024 dropped by 296,000 compared to the previous month, reaching the lowest level since February 2021 and falling short of expectations of 8.34 million.
週二，2024年4月份的職位空缺數量與上月相比下降了29.6萬，達到2021年2月份以來的最低水平，低於834萬的預期。
These disappointing data points have led traders to significantly increase their bets on a Fed rate cut in September. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market now assigns a 65% chance of a rate cut, up from 46% just a week ago.
這些令人失望的數據點導致交易員大幅增加了對9月聯邦利率降息的押注。根據CME Group的FedWatch工具，市場現在將利率降低的概率定爲65％，比僅僅一週前的46％高。
All Eyes On This Week's Jobs Data
所有目光都放在這周的就業數據上。
The upcoming days will witness crucial updates on the U.S. labor market, with a series of data releases that will significantly impact financial markets.
未來幾天將見證美國勞動力市場的重要更新，一系列數據公佈將顯著影響金融市場。
On Wednesday, the ADP will release its private Employment Report, followed by the highly anticipated official employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.
週三，ADP將發佈其私人就業報告，接着是備受矚目的勞工統計局官方就業報告週五。
Economist consensus data compiled by Econoday predicts a rise in nonfarm payrolls from 175,000 in April to 195,000 in May. The estimates range from a low of 151,000 to a high of 225,000.
Econoday整理的經濟學家共識數據預測，5月非農就業將從4月的17.5萬上升到19.5萬。估計範圍從最低的15.1萬到最高的22.5萬。
The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to show a slight monthly increase, rising from 0.2% to 0.3%. The annual growth rate is predicted to hold steady at 3.9%.
失業率預計將保持在3.9％不變。平均每小時工資預計會略有月度增長，從0.2％上升到0.3％，預計年增長率將保持在3.9％不變。
| Measure | April 2024 | May 2024 (consensus) |
Consensus range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls (M/M) | 175,000 | 195,000 | 151,000 to 225,000 |
| Unemployment rate | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8 % to 3.9% |
| Average hourly earnings (M/M) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% to 0.3% |
| Average hourly earnings (Y/Y) | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% to 3.9% |
| 量規 | 2024年4月 | 2024年5月 （共識） |
共識範圍 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 非農就業人口(月環比) | 175,000 | 195,000 | 151,000至225,000 |
| 失業率 | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8%至3.9% |
| 平均每小時工資(月環比) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2%至0.3% |
| 平均每小時工資(年同比) | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8%至3.9% |
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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。