Alcoa Set For Gains As China's Aluminum Market Surplus Grows, Global Supply Tightens: JPMorgan
Alcoa Set For Gains As China's Aluminum Market Surplus Grows, Global Supply Tightens: JPMorgan
Alcoa Corp (NYSE:AA) stock investors should be prepared for some turbulence in aluminum prices in the near term, according to insights from JPMorgan's Commodities Research team led by Greg Shearer.
根據JPMorgan大宗商品研究團隊的洞察，鋁價短期內可能會出現動盪，紐約證券交易所（NYSE）的Alcoa公司（股票代碼爲AA）股票投資者應該做好準備。該團隊警告稱，當前鋁價每公噸約爲2700美元，可能因爲與基本面逐漸脫節（類似於銅價的最近趨勢），而趨於每公噸2450至2500美元的閾值。
The team warns that aluminum prices, currently hovering around $2,700 per metric ton, may consolidate toward $2,450 to $2,500 per metric ton due to a growing disconnect from underlying fundamentals, much like the recent trend observed in copper prices.
這種看淡的預測源於多種因素的組合，主要與中國市場有關。儘管年初表現強勁，但隨着價格上漲，中國鋁需求正在顯露疲態。最近反季節庫存的增加和點價折扣的擴大表明，供應正在超過需求，導致市場出現過剩。雲南等地區生產的復甦正在增加這種供應過剩，預計到2025年時將達到頂峯。
Aluminum Prices Set for Near-Term Consolidation
鋁價即將面臨短期鉅變。
This bearish outlook stems from a combination of factors, primarily related to the Chinese market. Despite a resilient start to the year, Chinese aluminum demand is showing signs of fatigue amid higher prices.
這種看淡的預測源於多種因素的組合，主要與中國市場有關。儘管年初表現強勁，但隨着價格上漲，中國鋁需求正在顯露疲態。
Recent counter-seasonal inventory builds and widening spot discounts suggest that supply is outpacing demand, leading to a surplus in the market. The resurgence of production in Yunnan and other regions is adding to this supply glut, which is expected to cap out by 2025.
最近的逆季節庫存增長和現貨折扣的擴大表明，供應正在超過需求，導致市場出現過剩。雲南等地區的產能再次上升將增加這種供應過剩，預計到2025年時將達到頂峯。
Ex-China Demand Expected To Recover
預計中國以外的需求將得到恢復。JPMorgan團隊預測，全球供應將趨緊，需求將增加，因此鋁價將在較長時間內反彈。預計到2025年時，建築、耐用消費品和機械等部門的需求將得到強勁恢復，增長率預計爲4.7%。此外，銅的供應不足和替代需求預計將推高鋁價，使其恢復至每公噸2740美元的平均水平。
On a more positive note, the JPMorgan team forecasts a rebound in aluminum prices in the longer term, driven by tightening global supply and increased demand. They expect demand outside of China to recover robustly, with a predicted growth rate of 4.7% year-on-year in 2025, particularly from sectors like construction, consumer durables, and machinery. Additionally, supply constraints and substitution demand from copper are projected to push aluminum prices back up towards an average of $2,740 per metric ton in 2025.
針對美國鋁業公司（Alcoa）而言，這些市場動態既是挑戰也是機會。公司股票在本季度已經得到了大幅重估，上漲了30%，這種漲幅是由於鋁價和氧化鋁價格的上漲所引起的。
Alcoa's Strategic Positioning
紐約證券交易所（NYSE）的Alcoa公司的戰略定位。
For Alcoa, these market dynamics present both challenges and opportunities. The company's shares have already seen a substantial re-rating this quarter, rising 30% due to the rally in aluminum and alumina prices.
對於Alcoa公司而言，這些市場動態既是挑戰也是機會。公司股票在本季度已經得到了大幅重估，上漲了30%，這種漲幅是由於鋁價和氧化鋁價格的上漲所引起的。
Also Read: Alcoa's Options: A Look at What the Big Money is Thinking
同時閱讀: Alcoa公司的期權——大資金的投資研究
Alcoa's strategic positioning, particularly its exposure to alumina, could make it an attractive investment as alumina markets are poised for further tightness. The planned curtailment of Alcoa's Kwinana refinery and potential additional supply-side constraints may further tighten alumina supply, potentially benefiting Alcoa's pricing power, the JPMorgan analysts note.
Alcoa公司的戰略定位，尤其是其對氧化鋁的敞口，可能會成爲一種具有吸引力的投資，因爲氧化鋁市場即將進一步收緊。JPMorgan分析師指出，計劃中的Alcoa Kwinana煉油廠削減和潛在的供應端限制可能會進一步收緊氧化鋁供應，從而可能有助於提高Alcoa公司的定價能力。
Furthermore, the likely sale of Alcoa's loss-making San Ciprian complex could remove a significant overhang, enhancing the company's financial health. As such, Alcoa remains a solid option for investors seeking exposure to the aluminum and alumina markets, especially with an eye on the longer-term price recovery forecasted by JPMorgan.
此外，Alcoa公司可能出售虧損的San Ciprian項目，這可能消除重大的負面因素，改善公司的財務狀況。因此，對於希望接觸鋁和氧化鋁市場並關注JPMorgan預測的長期價格恢復的投資者來說，Alcoa仍然是一種穩健的選擇。
Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。