Last week saw the newest first-quarter earnings release from MediWound Ltd. (NASDAQ:MDWD), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues of US$5.0m beat expectations by a respectable 6.3%, although statutory losses per share increased. MediWound lost US$1.05, which was 158% more than what the analysts had included in their models. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for MediWound from four analysts is for revenues of US$23.8m in 2024. If met, it would imply a sizeable 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$2.60 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$24.0m and losses of US$1.93 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on MediWound even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a considerable increase to per-share losses.
As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$28.50, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic MediWound analyst has a price target of US$36.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$25.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting MediWound's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 28% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.9% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.7% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect MediWound to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$28.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on MediWound. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MediWound going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.