On June 1st, Cui Dongshu wrote that the world's auto sales from January to April 2024 reached 28.36 million units, with new energy cars reaching 4.49 million units.
On June 1st, Cui Dongshu wrote that the world's auto sales from January to April 2024 reached 28.36 million units, with new energy cars reaching 4.49 million units. In January-April 2024, the share of new energy vehicles reached 15.8%, with the proportion of pure electric cars reaching 10.4%, and plug-in hybrids reaching 5.4%. In April 2024, the global new energy passenger car sales reached 1.19 million units, a 24% increase year-on-year but a 10% decrease from the previous month. In January-April, global new energy passenger cars reached 4.36 million units, an increase of 22% year-on-year. Europe's new energy passenger car sales only increased by 8% from January to April this year, with an increase of only 70,000 units. In April, Europe's new energy passenger car sales increased by 14%. America's new energy sales volume of 480,000 units from January to April this year is growing at a slower pace of 9%.
Slowing down in sales growth of new energy vehicles in Europe and America is a concern. Early adopters and environmentalists have already bought electric cars, but mainstream consumers still have significant worries about charging infrastructure, battery life, and insurance costs. Even if the use of autonomous driving is allowed at a higher interest rate, sales penetration has not reached expectations.
In recent years, China's new energy passenger car sales growth rate has been stronger than the global average. China's market share is expected to be 64% of the world in 2023. From January to April 2024, China retained 64% of the world's market share, with Chinese new energy passenger cars accounting for 67% of April's global total. By 2023, China is expected to have a 62% market share of the world's pure electric vehicles, while from January to April 2024, China's market share was 59%, showing relatively stable performance. In the global plug-in hybrid market, China has strong performance, with a market share of 69% in 2023 and 71% from January to April 2024.
Affected by the high base and the withdrawal of subsidy policies by various countries, the new energy passenger cars in Europe and the United States started weakly in 2024, and the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe have continued to decline. China's new energy vehicle exports performed well from January to April 2024, showing good performance in the South American and Southeast Asian markets. This is also due to China's strong industrial chain, forming a dual growth of a strong domestic market and exports.
Global trend of new energy vehicles
1. Performance of global new energy vehicles in 2024
In 2023, the world's auto sales were 89.01 million units, of which new energy car sales were 14.29 million units, and the proportion of fuel car sales declined. From January to April 2024, the world's auto sales reached 28.36 million units, and new energy cars reached 4.49 million units.
2. World auto energy structure
The world's sales proportion of new energy vehicles reached 22.1% in January-April 2024, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from 2023. Among them, the proportion of narrow sense new energy vehicles reached 15.8%, which is a relatively strong performance. New energy vehicles accounted for 15.8% in January-April 2024. Among them, the share of pure electric vehicles reached 10.4%, while the share of plug-in hybrids was 5.4%, and the share of hybrid electric vehicles reached 6.3%, with an increase in the share of oil-electric hybrids.
3. The structure of global new energy vehicles
The structure of global new energy vehicles is mainly narrow sense cars, accounting for 96% from January to April 2024, while new energy commercial vehicles accounted for 3.8%.
In new energy passenger cars, sedans accounted for 37%, SUVs accounted for 54%, and MPVs accounted for a relatively low proportion. SUVs are currently the main force of new energy vehicles in the world.
Global trend of new energy passenger cars
1. Performance of global new energy passenger cars in 2024
In 2020, sales of new energy passenger cars reached 2.87 million units, an increase of 42% from the same period in 2019. In 2021, the sales of new energy passenger cars reached 6.37 million units, showing a super strong performance growth of 122%.
The global trend of new energy passenger cars is stronger in 2022, reaching 10.39 million units, an increase of 63% year-on-year. In 2023, the trend of global new energy passenger cars is stronger, reaching 13.99 million units, an increase of 35% year-on-year.
In April 2024, the global new energy passenger car sales were 1.19 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24%, but a 10% decrease from the previous month. From January to April 2024, global new energy passenger cars reached 4.36 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22%. Due to the slowdown in Europe and America's new energy trend, the relative slowdown in the global new energy trend from January to April is significant.
2. Trend of the global new energy passenger car market. 1H 2020, the global new energy car was faced with high base pressure, and in 2H it started to enter a low base stage, laying a new growth cycle that has been continuing until now. It has shown an accelerated upward trend from 2021 to 2022, with even stronger growth under a low base. From a low starting point, the world's new energy vehicles will recover medium to high growth in the future, with obvious characteristics of rising and falling after reaching a peak in 2024. 3. Trends in the global new energy passenger car market. The trend of new energy outside of China is generally weaker, and new energy overseas has been relatively sluggish since this year. Due to the weak performance of new energy vehicles in Europe and America in April, the growth rate from January to April dropped to 10%. Last year, overseas new energy passenger cars had a strong performance in Q1, but the trend in April was weak. This year, April's performance was better due to the low base of last year. China sold 3.31 million passenger cars in 2021, surpassing Europe's 2.18 million and North America's 700,000, showing obvious advantage. China reached a sales volume of 6.5 million in 2022, vastly surpassing Europe's 2.48 million and North America's 1.06 million. China's new energy vehicle advantage is evident. In 2023, China's sales will reach 8.87 million, continuing to far surpass Europe and North America in sales and total new energy vehicles. 9. The growth rate of new energy passenger car sales in Europe and North America from January to April this year was 8% for 870,000 and 480,000 vehicles respectively. In the context of increasing fuel supply, the performance of new energy in Europe and America is general. According to regional market trends for new energy vehicles, Europe has been accelerating and surpassing China throughout 2020. From 2021 to 2023, Europe's new energy vehicle market is expected to show an overall high and stable growth, while China's new energy vehicle market has remained strong in recent years. The decline in February this year was temporary. New energy cars in Europe and America are clearly slower than China, and the growth rate of new energy cars in the US market is slightly faster than that in Europe. China's new energy car sales showed strength in January 2024, while the US showed significant signs of recovery early this year. The US new energy market has stabilized this year, while Europe is still struggling. 11. Sales of new energy vehicles in the US from January to April this year reached 480,000, with a slower growth rate of 9%, and mainstream consumers still have concerns about charging infrastructure, battery life, and insurance costs. The pressure on inventory is large, and dealers are complaining prominently. 12. Currently, early adopters and environmentalists in Europe and America have already purchased electric vehicles. Now, the challenge facing electric vehicle companies comes from the skepticism of mainstream buyers. Even with the use of autonomous driving functions, the sales penetration rate has not reached the expected level. 13. The sales of new energy passenger cars in Europe from January to April this year reached 890,000, with an increase of only 70,000 from the same period last year, at a growth rate of 8%. In April, the sales of new energy passenger cars in Europe were 220,000, an increase of 14%. European consumers are facing rising interest rates, slowing economic growth, and the gradual cancellation of new energy vehicle subsidies, coupled with insufficient charging infrastructure, which is still an important factor restricting their widespread development and leading to weak demand. 14. The sales of new energy vehicles in Europe in April of each year have been relatively high. Currently, due to the fact that the sales of new energy vehicles in certain countries have not yet been confirmed, the April data may be even better, but the growth pressure on European new energy is still relatively high in the context of a weak economy and consumer demand. 4. Penetration of new energy vehicles around the world. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the world is showing a rapid upward trend. By 2022, it had reached 13%, and by 2023, it had reached 16%. In early 2024, it dropped to only 16%. Among them, China's new energy penetration rate reached 32% in 2024, Germany's reached 16%, Norway's reached 67%, the US's reached only 9%, and Japan's reached only 3%. Therefore, the unevenness of the world's new energy development is extremely apparent. After China continues to strengthen its new energy development and Europe and the United States weaken their encouragement policies for new energy, the world's new energy vehicles have entered a new stage of differentiation and development.
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3. Trends in the global market for new energy passenger vehicles
New energy trends outside of China are generally weak. Overseas new energy has been relatively sluggish since this year. Due to the weak performance of new energy vehicles in Europe and America in April, the growth rate from January to April dropped to 10%.
After a strong performance in Q1 last year, the trend of new energy vehicles in April last year was weak. This year, April's performance was better due to the low base of last year.
China sold 3.31 million passenger cars in 2021, surpassing Europe's 2.18 million and North America's 700,000, showing obvious advantage.
In 2022, China reached a sales volume of 6.5 million, vastly surpassing Europe's 2.48 million and North America's 1.06 million. China's new energy vehicle advantage is evident.
In 2023, China's sales will reach 8.87 million, continuing to far surpass Europe and North America in sales and total new energy vehicles.
From January to April this year, the growth rate of new energy passenger car sales in Europe and North America was 8% for 870,000 and 480,000 vehicles respectively. In the context of increasing fuel supply, the performance of new energy in Europe and America is general.
From 2020, Europe has been accelerating and surpassing China. From 2021 to 2023, Europe's new energy vehicle market will show an overall high and stable growth, while China's new energy vehicle market has remained strong in recent years. The decline in February this year was temporary. New energy cars in Europe and America are clearly slower than China, and the growth rate of new energy cars in the US market is slightly faster than that in Europe. China's new energy car sales showed strength in January 2024, while the US showed significant signs of recovery early this year. The US new energy market has stabilized this year, while Europe is still struggling.
Sales of new energy vehicles in the US from January to April this year reached 480,000, with a slower growth rate of 9%, and mainstream consumers still have concerns about charging infrastructure, battery life, and insurance costs. The pressure on inventory is large, and dealers are complaining prominently.
Currently, early adopters and environmentalists in Europe and America have already purchased electric vehicles. Now, the challenge facing electric vehicle companies comes from the skepticism of mainstream buyers. Even with the use of autonomous driving functions, the sales penetration rate has not reached the expected level.
The sales of new energy passenger cars in Europe from January to April this year reached 890,000, with an increase of only 70,000 from the same period last year, at a growth rate of 8%. In April, the sales of new energy passenger cars in Europe were 220,000, an increase of 14%. European consumers are facing rising interest rates, slowing economic growth, and the gradual cancellation of new energy vehicle subsidies, coupled with insufficient charging infrastructure, which is still an important factor restricting their widespread development and leading to weak demand.
The sales of new energy vehicles in Europe in April of each year have been relatively high. Currently, due to the fact that the sales of new energy vehicles in certain countries have not yet been confirmed, the April data may be even better, but the growth pressure on European new energy is still relatively high in the context of a weak economy and consumer demand.
4. Penetration rate of new energy vehicles in various countries around the world. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the world is showing a rapid upward trend. By 2022, it had reached 13%, and by 2023, it had reached 16%. In early 2024, it dropped to only 16%. Among them, China's new energy penetration rate reached 32% in 2024, Germany's reached 16%, Norway's reached 67%, the US's reached only 9%, and Japan's reached only 3%. Therefore, the unevenness of the world's new energy development is extremely apparent.
The overall penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the world is showing a rapid upward trend, reaching 13% in 2022, 16% in 2023, but dropping to only 16% in early 2024. In terms of the penetration rate in 2024, China's new energy penetration rate reached 32%, Germany reached 16%, Norway reached 67%, the United States only reached 9%, and Japan only reached 3%, hence highlighting the extreme unevenness in the development of new energy in the world.
As China continues to strengthen its new energy development, and Europe and the United States weaken their encouragement policies for new energy, the world's new energy vehicles have entered a new stage of differentiation and development.
Features of the global new energy passenger car structure.
1. Trends in the global new energy passenger car market.
The European new energy market for the whole 2021 was weak due to the impact of the epidemic, and the growth of new energy was weak. In 2022, it was still affected by the epidemic, and the share of Europe in 2022 decreased significantly from 2021. In 2023, the share of Europe decreased slightly, and in January-April 2024, the share continued to decline significantly.
Recently, China's new energy passenger car growth rate is stronger than the world average growth rate, and China's new energy passenger car world market share in 2020 has reversed. China maintained a strong level of 52% for the whole year of 2021. China's new energy passenger car world market share exceeded 63% in 2022. The share of China in the world in 2023 is 64%, and the share of China's new energy passenger cars in January-April 2024 maintains the same share of 64%, of which China's new energy passenger car world market share in April reaches 67%.
2. Trends in the market share of new energy cars for each manufacturer.
From the perspective of sales share in previous years, BYD in China leads the world, and Tesla's performance is not strong. Geely in China has risen rapidly. SAIC's new energy performance is good, and SAIC passenger cars and SAIC Wuling's two independent automakers perform well. Chang'an's new energy has recently shown significant strength. German Volkswagen's new energy vehicles perform relatively well, and BMW Group and South Korean Hyundai maintain the level of the second tier.
The competition for luxury car's new energy wave is relatively fierce, and the performance of American Tesla has slowed down. The performance of BMW and Mercedes-Benz's performance cars is generally, Tesla's sales volume is currently incremental for Model 3 and Model Y.
The overall performance of China's new forces is strong, especially the performance of Ideal is particularly good.
Trends in the market structure of pure electric new energy vehicles.
1. World structure of pure electric vehicles.
China's performance in the world pure electric vehicle market share is relatively prominent, with a share of around 60% in 2017-2018; the share slightly decreased in 2019-2020, to the share of 48% in 2020; China's world market share of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 exceeds 63%. China's share in the world in 2023 is 64%, and the share of China's pure electric passenger cars in January-April 2024 maintains a stable share of 59%.
Recently, China's performance in plug-in hybrids is relatively strong, and pure electric performance is average. The share of pure electric vehicles in Europe increased from 16% in 2018 to 23% in 2019, and to 35% in 2020. It decreased to 20% in 2023 and relatively stabilized and rebounded to 21% in January-April 2024. The share of electric vehicles in the United States rose to 12% this year, and the performance improved slightly.
2. Trends in car company share.
From the perspective of the car company's share of pure electric vehicles, BYD's share continues to rise overall. It has maintained a share of more than 7% from 2017 to 2021, but its share increased to 12% in 2022, 17% in 2023, and maintained good performance with a share of 18% in 2024.
Tesla's share in pure electric vehicles is relatively strong, leading the world in pure electric vehicles. It was at around 23% in 2020, and currently maintains a strong trend of 22%.
Geely Group's share rose from 4% in 2019 to 7% in 2024. SAIC Group and Guangzhou Automobile's share of pure electric vehicles recently decreased slightly, and the share of Chang'an's pure electric vehicle is relatively stable.
Trends in the market structure of plug-in hybrid new energy vehicles.
1. World structure of plug-in hybrids.
China's performance in the world's plug-in hybrid market share continues to strengthen. It was at a level between 30% and 50% in 2017-2018 and fell to 25% in 2020. In 2021, China's share of plug-in hybrids in the world reached 32%. It rose to 56% in 2022, 69% in 2023, and reached an ultra-high share of 71% in January-April 2024, showing China's super strong performance in the world plug-in hybrid market.
The share of plug-in hybrids in Europe rose from 28% in 2018 to 65% in 2020, and fell to 19% in 2024.
2. Trend of market share of car companies Looking at the market share of plug-in hybrid vehicles of car companies, BYD performed the most outstandingly. In 2020, BYD's world plug-in hybrid vehicle share dropped to a low level of 6%, but rose to 16% in 2021, and is expected to rise to 36% in 2023. The plug-in hybrid vehicle share of BYD at the beginning of 2024 dropped slightly to 33%, but still demonstrated BYD's leading performance in the plug-in hybrid vehicle market. Volkswagen's plug-in hybrid vehicle share rose sharply to 20% in 2020, then fell to 5.5% in 2024. BMW's plug-in hybrid vehicle share also showed a significant decline in the past two years, falling to a level of 3% in 2024. Geely Volvo's plug-in hybrid vehicle share accounts for 9% of the world's market share. 3. Trend of market structure of hybrid vehicles 1. Global structure of conventional hybrids China's hybrid vehicle market has developed rapidly in recent years. In 2022, it became the largest hybrid vehicle market in the world, and the hybrid vehicle share in 2023 declined, while the hybrid vehicle markets in the United States and Japan rebounded. 2. Trend of enterprise share of conventional hybrids The hybrid vehicle market is dominated by Japanese and South Korean companies. The performance of Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Hyundai in hybrid vehicles is very strong, accounting for 94%. The hybrid vehicle share of most other companies is not more than 2%. Dongfeng and Great Wall have shown strong performance in the hybrid vehicle market in 2024 recently.
Looking at the market share of plug-in hybrid vehicles of car companies, BYD performed the most outstandingly. BYD's world plug-in hybrid vehicle share dropped to a low level of 6% in 2020, but rose to 16% in 2021 and is expected to rise to 36% in 2023. In early 2024, BYD's plug-in hybrid vehicle share slightly dropped to 33%, but it still demonstrated BYD's leading performance in the plug-in hybrid vehicle market.
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1. Global structure of conventional hybrids China's hybrid vehicle market has developed rapidly in recent years. In 2022, it became the largest hybrid vehicle market in the world, and the hybrid vehicle share in 2023 declined, while the hybrid vehicle markets in the United States and Japan rebounded.
1. Global structure of conventional hybrids
China's hybrid vehicle market has developed rapidly in recent years. In 2022, it became the largest hybrid vehicle market in the world, and the hybrid vehicle share in 2023 declined, while the hybrid vehicle markets in the United States and Japan rebounded.
2. Trend of enterprise share of conventional hybrids The hybrid vehicle market is dominated by Japanese and South Korean companies. The performance of Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Hyundai in hybrid vehicles is very strong, accounting for 94%. The hybrid vehicle share of most other companies is not more than 2%. Dongfeng and Great Wall have shown strong performance in the hybrid vehicle market in 2024 recently.
The hybrid vehicle market is dominated by Japanese and South Korean companies. The performance of Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Hyundai in hybrid vehicles is very strong, accounting for 94%. The hybrid vehicle share of most other companies is not more than 2%. Recently, Dongfeng and Great Wall have shown strong performance in the hybrid vehicle market in 2024.