CHINA COAL(1898.HK):UPGRADE AS SURPRISED SPECIAL DIVIDEND IMPLIES EFFECTIVE INCREASE IN PAYOUT
CHINA COAL(1898.HK):UPGRADE AS SURPRISED SPECIAL DIVIDEND IMPLIES EFFECTIVE INCREASE IN PAYOUT
China Coal proposes a special DPS of RMB0.113 for 2023 on top of the regular DPS already announced. It further proposes to distribute interim dividend for 2024 with payout ratio no less than 30%. The distribution of special dividend for 2023 effectively raises its payout ratio to 37.7% of its earnings under CAS. We believe its payout will stay at least at this level for future years given its healthy cashflow and improved balance sheet. This will make its dividend yield more in line with its peers. Hence, we upgrade our rating from SELL to HOLD and increase our target price to HK$8.59.
中煤提議，在已經公佈的常規每股收益的基礎上，2023年將特別每股收益定爲0.113元人民幣。它還提議分配2024年的中期股息，派息率不低於30％。2023年特別股息的分配實際上將其派息率提高到CAS下收益的37.7％。我們認爲，鑑於其健康的現金流和資產負債表的改善，其支出在未來幾年將至少保持在這個水平。這將使其股息收益率與同行更加一致。因此，我們將評級從賣出上調至持有，並將目標價上調至8.59港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Adding the special DPS of RMB0.113 to the regular final DPS of RMB0.442 for 2023, the total DPS of 2023 will be RMB0.555. This will increase the effective payout ratio from 30% to 37.7% based on its earnings under CAS. (The company pays its dividend based on the lower of its earnings under IFRS and CAS.)
將人民幣0.113元的特殊每秒傷害加到2023年人民幣0.442元的常規最終每秒傷害的基礎上，2023年的總每秒傷害將爲人民幣0.555元。根據CAS下的收益，這將把有效派息率從30％提高到37.7％。（該公司根據國際財務報告準則和CAS的收益的較低者支付股息。）
The proposed distribution of interim dividend is also a positive development as investors no longer have to wait for a year to get paid. While the proposed payout ratio of interim dividend is at least 30%, we believe the company will maintain its full-year payout at no less than 37.7% for future years.
擬議的中期股息分配也是一個積極的進展，因爲投資者不必再等一年才能獲得報酬。儘管中期股息的擬議派息率至少爲30％，但我們認爲該公司未來幾年的全年派息率將維持在不低於37.7％。
After the strong earnings in the past three years, the company was in net cash by the end of 2023. Even if we assume the capex in 2025 and 2026 to stay at the same level as 2024, we still expect the company to generate free cashflow of RMB11-13bn in 2024-26. It indeed has the capacity to raise its payout ratio.
在過去三年的強勁收益之後，到2023年底，該公司的淨現金爲淨現金。即使我們假設2025年和2026年的資本支出將與2024年保持在同一水平，我們仍然預計該公司在2024-26年將產生110億至130億元人民幣的自由現金流。它確實有能力提高其派息率。
As it has been so difficult to get the company to raise its payout ratio, we believe the company will keep its payout ratio unchanged for a period of time before raising it further. As the increase in effective payout ratio now makes its dividend yield more in line with its peers, we upgrade our call to HOLD.
由於很難讓公司提高派息率，我們認爲該公司將在一段時間內保持派息率不變，然後再進一步提高派息率。由於有效派息率的提高現在使其股息收益率與同行更加一致，因此我們將看漲期權上調至持有。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Sharp fall in coal prices.
煤炭價格急劇下跌。
Lower-than-expected profit of coal chemical business.
煤化工業務的利潤低於預期。
Valuation
估價
We increase our target price for its H shares from HK$7.19 to HK$8.59. We change our target valuation from 0.57x 2024E P/B to 5.5% average dividend yield for 2024-26E. We set our target price at the higher of P/B based method and dividend yield based method. The effective increase in payout ratio has prompted us to switch from the former to the latter.
我們將H股的目標股價從7.19港元上調至8.59港元。我們將目標估值從2024年的0.57倍市盈率改爲2024-26E的平均股息收益率爲5.5％。我們將目標價格設定爲基於市盈率的方法和基於股息收益率的方法中的較高值。派息率的有效提高促使我們從前者轉向後者。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。