According to the Zhitong Finance and Economics App, Guotai Junan released a research report stating that policy-driven entry of generative models into the filing process provides the basic conditions for the continuous iteration and promotion of domestic large-scale models. Since 2024, the ability of domestic large-scale models to continue to improve has reached the level of the leading product GPT4. Overseas GPT-4o continues to improve product cost performance, and high-quality open-source large-scale models such as Llama and Gemini are iterated. This cost compression trend has also emerged in China, and companies such as ByteDance, Baidu, and Tencent have successively lowered API call prices. This trend is expected to help the vigorous development of domestic AI applications and may see more AI landings in various scenarios.
The bank is confident in the future development of domestic AI and the media industry is expected to benefit. In terms of individual stocks, we recommend: 1) The education industry is expected to benefit from the development of speech interaction and multimodal, and the benefit targets includes Astro-Century Education & Technology Co., Ltd. (300654.SZ), Anhui Xinhua Media Co., Ltd. (601801.SH), Southern Publishing and Media Co.Ltd., and Hitevision Co., Ltd.; 2) The emotional companionship track also has development opportunities, and the benefiting targets include Kunlun Tech Co., Ltd. (300418.SZ) and Hubei Century Network Technology Inc.(300494.SZ); 3) Pay attention to the transformation of multimodal development on film and television production and marketing scenes, as well as image corpus demand, and recommend Shanghai Film Co., Ltd. (601595.SH) and benefiting targets include Visual China Group (000681.SZ), beijing zhidemai technology co. Ltd., bluefocus intelligent communications group ltd., Beijing Jetsen Technology Co., Ltd.; 4) As the most complex content industry in terms of production process, gaming has the greatest potential for AI development. High-quality gaming companies' value is outstanding, and we recommend Kingnet Network Co., Ltd. (002517.SZ), G-bits Network Technology (603444.SH), 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group (SSE STAR Board 002555), Perfect World Co., Ltd., Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co.,Ltd. The benefiting targets are Tencent Holdings Limited, NetEase, Inc., Giant Network Group Co., Ltd., Beijing Ultrawise Technology Co., Ltd. and Wuxi Boton Technology Co., Ltd.
GTJA's main opinions include:
Continuously bullish on investment opportunities in the application scenarios of domestic large-scale models.
We are confident in the future development of domestic AI, and the media industry is expected to benefit. 1) The education industry is expected to benefit from speech interaction and multimodal development. The benefiting targets include Astro-Century Education & Technology Co., Ltd., Anhui Xinhua Media Co., Ltd., Southern Publishing and Media Co.Ltd., and Hitevision Co., Ltd.; 2) The emotional companionship track also has development opportunities, and the benefiting targets include Kunlun Tech Co., Ltd., Hubei Century Network Technology Inc., 3) Pay attention to the transformation of multimodal development on film and television production and marketing scenes, as well as image corpus demand, and we recommend Shanghai Film Co., Ltd. The benefiting targets include Visual China Group, beijing zhidemai technology co. Ltd., bluefocus intelligent communications group ltd., Beijing Jetsen Technology Co., Ltd.; 4) As the most complex content industry in terms of production process, gaming has the greatest potential for AI development. High-quality gaming companies' value is outstanding, and we recommend Kingnet Network Co., Ltd., G-bits Network Technology, 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group, Perfect World Co., Ltd., Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co.,Ltd., and the benefiting targets are Tencent Holdings Limited, NetEase, Inc., Giant Network Group Co., Ltd., Beijing Ultrawise Technology Co., Ltd. and Wuxi Boton Technology Co., Ltd.
The ability of domestic large-scale models is close to that of overseas leading products, and price competition has begun, and the landing scenarios are expected to be further opened.
Policy-driven entry of generative models into the filing process provides the basic conditions for the continuous iteration and promotion of domestic large-scale models. Since 2024, the ability of domestic large-scale models to continue to improve has reached the level of the leading product GPT4. Overseas GPT-4o continues to improve product cost performance, and high-quality open-source large-scale models such as Llama and Gemini are iterated. This cost compression trend has also emerged in China, and companies such as ByteDance, Baidu, and Tencent have successively lowered API call prices. This trend is expected to help the vigorous development of domestic AI applications and may see more AI landings in various scenarios.
Search track: overseas leading products have successfully established the track, and new and old Chinese search players have successively entered the market, opening up the initial flow competition.
Perplexity AI, an overseas AI answer engine, is the first-mover in the search track. Since 2023, the number of users has steadily increased and can now stably reach 3 million daily web visits. Domestic new and old information search players have actively entered the market, and products such as Kimi, Mita, and Tiangong have become increasingly popular since the beginning of the year, forming a certain degree of product characteristics and audience groups. They have also begun to explore online customer acquisition and paid monetization, etc.
Emotional companionship track: user demand is stable, and product monetization still needs to be developed.
The emotional companionship track can be traced back to 2017. The product mainly satisfies users' emotional needs through customized virtual characters. The integration of AI technology adds interaction and empathy. Compared with efficiency-oriented interaction AI represented by ChatGPT, emotional companionship AI has a stable user base and significantly more interactive frequency and duration with huge potential. At present, the user group is relatively young, and the product payment plan is not prominent. How to improve user experience and monetization is an important long-term development issue.
Risk warning:
The landing promotion effect of large-scale models falls short of expectations, and product competition intensifies the risk.