Event: Company updates clinical data review of PD-1/TIGIT dual antibody ZG005 under development:
ZG005 has the best competitive advantage in its class in clinical data for cervical cancer patients who have failed first-line standard treatment, and the company's antibody development capabilities have been initially verified. The company released clinical data on 21 cervical cancer patients who failed first-line standard treatment. As of April 16, 2024, efficacy: 2 cases of complete remission (CR), 7 cases of partial remission (PR), and 8 cases of stable disease (SD); the objective response rate (ORR) was 43% (9/21), and the disease control rate (DCR) was 81% (17/21). In particular, the objective response rate (ORR) for the target dose group of 20 mg/kg reached 63%. Compared with competing products - monoclonal antibodies, ADC, and dual antibodies etc., showed the best competitive advantage in its class (not head-to-head). Safety aspects: 63.3% (50/79) of subjects had treatment-related adverse events (TREs), most of which were grade 1 or 2.
The clinical data for second-line treatment of cervical cancer with the dual-antibody drug ZG005 released this time is impressive. Preliminary evidence shows that Zejing Pharmaceutical's antibody development capabilities have great potential.
The catalysts for 2024 are intense, and the company's development is expected to enter a new stage. In 2024, the company is about to launch a number of products, submit listing applications, and read data. There are many potential BDs, and catalytic factors are intensive. We believe that the company has a strong competitive advantage in the field of T cell engager, a new and promising circuit. As the company gradually discloses data on antibody products this year, the company is expected to achieve a leap from small molecule drugs to large molecule drugs, and its innovative research and development capabilities are expected to be gradually verified.
Profit forecast: Considering the market space, competitive pattern and increasing commercialization of the company's core products, we expect the company's revenue to 2024-2026 to be 668 million yuan, 1,358 million yuan, and 1.924 billion yuan, respectively, up 72.9%, 103.3%, and 41.7% year-on-year, respectively; net profit from 2024-2026 will be -220 million yuan, 188 million yuan, and 502 million yuan, respectively.
Risk factors: risk of failure in innovative drug development; risk of commercialization falling short of expectations; increased risk of domestic and overseas market competition; risk of loss of the company's core technology and management personnel; risk of policy fluctuations.