多因素共振，行业趋势向上：1）随着国内“减油增化”、化工项目大型化、大型成套设备老旧更新需求释放，国内长期对外聚烯烃依存度高的局面将得到改善，国内合成树脂气力输送系统订单长期维持较高景气度状态，2023-2027 年国内合成树脂市场空间约195 亿元。2）海外产油国对石化产业链重视程度提升，“一带一路”国家合成树脂产能扩张市场空间可观，2023-2027 年合成树脂市场空间超过120 亿元，中亚、东欧、中东均存在合成树脂扩张的产能规划。Investment highlights:
The company is a leading enterprise in the field of synthetic resins in the pneumatic conveying industry. The company began providing powder and granular material system solutions with pneumatic conveying as the core. The products include complete systems, single-function systems and related equipment and components centered on pneumatic conveying technology for powder particles, mainly polyolefin pneumatic conveying systems; the main application field is the synthetic resin industry, which is widely used in the fields of petrochemicals, chemicals, and new materials, and extends to silicone, modified plastics and other industries. According to the company's prospectus, the company's market share in the domestic synthetic resin field was over 40% in 2020-2022. The company's profitability is good. Operating income and net profit showed compound growth, with a compound revenue growth rate of 37% in 2020-2023.
The company has accumulated rich experience in pneumatic conveying system design, mastered a special pressure loss calculation model for pneumatic conveying systems, and established a database of material parameters. The industry has high technology, experience, and performance barriers, and there is no empirical formula for complete calculation and design of pneumatic conveying of powder particles. With rich project experience and a professional technical team, the company has designed and developed a special pressure loss calculation model for pneumatic conveying systems, and has established a database of system calculation parameters for various materials. It is one of the few manufacturers in the world that can accurately calculate large-scale polyolefin projects.
Multiple factors resonate, and industry trends are rising: 1) With domestic “oil reduction and enhancement”, large-scale chemical projects, and the release of demand for large-scale equipment upgrades, the long-term domestic dependence on external polyolefins will improve. Domestic synthetic resin pneumatic conveying system orders will maintain a high level of prosperity for a long time, and the domestic synthetic resin market space is about 19.5 billion yuan in 2023-2027. 2) Overseas oil producers are paying more attention to the petrochemical industry chain. The “Belt and Road” countries have considerable synthetic resin production capacity expansion market space. The synthetic resin market space exceeds 12 billion yuan in 2023-2027. Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East all have production capacity plans for synthetic resin expansion.
3) In addition to the petrochemical and chemical industries, pneumatic conveying systems also have rich potential for expanding scenarios in modified plastics, new silicon-based materials, food and beverage industries; in addition, the company has strong technical and brand advantages, which helps it seize opportunities to take the lead in horizontal development.
Investment advice: Since the company has a leading edge in the domestic industry, we are optimistic that the company will increase its share of domestic market orders and enjoy industry dividends in the overseas synthetic resin expansion process. We expect revenue of 2024-2026 to be 16.2/22.3/2.73 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 342/4.84/574 million yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 19%/42%/19%, corresponding PE of 15/11/9 times, covered for the first time, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: 1) changes in the macro environment; 2) decline in new orders; 3) excessive concentration of revenue in the petrochemical industry; 4) risk of bad debts in accounts receivable; 5) excessive concentration of suppliers; 6) exchange rate risk; 7) risk of measurement bias.
