This week's big schedule at a glance

• The Federal Reserve's most favored inflation indicator is expected to have the smallest increase in the current year

The biggest impact on the market will come from the US PCE data for April, which will be released next Friday. Economists expect the core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, to rise 0.2% month-on-month in April. This will be the smallest increase in the index so far this year. The overall PCE price index may rise 0.3% for the third consecutive month in April. In terms of year-over-year data, PCE and core PCE are expected to increase by 2.7% and 2.8%, the same as last month. This year's PCE growth is in stark contrast to the relatively flat readings for the last three months of 2023, highlighting the uneven progress of the Federal Reserve in fighting inflation.

Bloomberg economists say the PCE report may provide some encouraging signs that the anti-inflation process has not completely stalled. But as price pressures are still brewing, inflation is likely to slow only very slowly this year. Quincy Krosby of LPL Financial believes that if the data is better than expected, the report may bring a clear positive catalyst to the market, and even if PCE remains stable, the market will be satisfied that inflation is still contained to a certain extent.

• The Federal Reserve's first drop has been postponed, and many officials will speak out

Next week, a number of Federal Reserve officials will deliver regular speeches, focusing on the latest statements on economic prospects and policy paths, including directors Bowman, Lisa Cook, and local Federal Reserve Chairs such as Williams, Bostic, Mester, Kashkari, and Logan. If officials suggest they will wait until the end of the year to cut interest rates and look for evidence that inflation has cooled for several months in a row before cutting interest rates, the dollar may strengthen further.

Nick Timiraos, the “New Federal Reserve News Agency,” concluded that currently only a few institutions, such as J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup, still insist that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in July, and most Wall Street investment banks' predictions for the first fall of the Federal Reserve have focused on September and December. Goldman Sachs recently predicted that the Federal Reserve would not start cutting interest rates until September of this year. The previous forecast was July.

• The T+1 settlement era for US stocks is about to begin

The US stock market will usher in a historic moment: the settlement time for transactions will be shortened from “T+2” to “T+1,” which means that investors will be able to receive settlement cash one working day after the transaction, instead of the previous two trading days. Some traders in the foreign exchange market are worried that this reform of the mechanism may have an impact on the global foreign exchange market, especially at dawn during the Asian period, when it is usually quiet.

• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will reappear

The governor of the Bank of Japan will deliver another speech. Japan's 10-year treasury bond yield hit a 12-year high on Friday due to continued market speculation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates further. However, Kazuo Ueda said on Friday that the rise in long-term bond yields to their highest level since 2012 is no big deal. This neutral statement indicates that the yield trend has not met the conditions for the Bank of Japan to act, at least so far.

• US stocks were closed for one day on Monday due to Memorial Day

This week's key performance calendar

Monday May 27th

Keywords：US stock market closure; annual profit margin of industrial enterprises above the size of China

On Monday, in terms of economic data, the annual profit margins of industrial enterprises above the scale of April in China will be announced; the annual import rate for April in Hong Kong, China, the annual export rate for April, and trade accounts for April will be released.

In terms of financial events, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered the opening address at a conference hosted by the Bank of Japan Finance Research Institute.

In terms of new shares,$QUNABOX GROUP (00917.HK)$It will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Also, the US stock market was closed for one day due to Memorial Day of the Fallen Soldiers.

Tuesday, May 28

Keywords: Federal Reserve Mester, Kashkari; Faraday future earnings report

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the monthly rate of the US FHFA housing price index for March, the annual rate of the housing price index for the 20 largest cities in S&P/CS for March, the consumer confidence index for the May consultation meeting, and the Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index for May will be announced.

In terms of financial events, the 2024 FOMC voting committee and Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Meester attended the panel discussion at the 2024 Bank of Japan Financial Research Institute meeting, and the 2026 FOMC voting committee and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari delivered a speech.

In terms of major financial reports,$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE.US)$The financial report will be released soon.

In terms of new shares,$EDA GROUP HLDGS (02505.HK)$It will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Also, the New York Stock Exchange Group will switch to the T+1 settlement method starting today.

Wednesday May 29th

Keywords：Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index; Federal Reserve Cook; Safran Financial Report

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the US will release the Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index for May.

In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook spoke on artificial intelligence.

In terms of financial reports,$Salesforce (CRM.US)$Financial reports will be released.

Thursday May 30th

Keywords: revised US GDP, number of initial jobless claims; Federal Reserve Williams, Bostic; Costco, Dell financial reports

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the revised value of the US real GDP annualized quarterly rate for the first quarter, the number of jobless claims for the week up to May 25, the monthly rate of the April existing housing contract sales index, API crude oil inventories for the week up to May 24, and EIA crude oil inventories for the week up to May 24 will soon be announced.

In terms of economic events, the Federal Reserve published the Beige Book on the state of the economy. FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams attended a round table. In 2024, FOMC Voting Committee and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic delivered speeches on the economic outlook.

In terms of major financial reports,$Costco (COST.US)$,$Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$Financial reports will be released.

Friday May 31st

Keywords：US core PCE price index annual rate; China official manufacturing PMI

On Friday, in terms of economic data, the US will announce the April core PCE price index, April monthly personal spending rate, Chicago PMI for May, etc.; China will announce the May official manufacturing PMI, etc.; Hong Kong, China will announce the April M3 rate of money supply, the annual retail sales volume rate for April, and the annual retail sales rate for April.

In terms of financial events, FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams delivered a speech at the New York Economic Club; 2024 FOMC Voting Committee and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic delivered a speech; and 2026 FOMC Voting Committee and Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan delivered a speech.

In terms of new shares,$AUTOSTREETS (02443.HK)$It will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Good luck with your investments in the new week!

editor/tolk