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Deciphera Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:DCPH) 74% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Simply Wall St ·  May 24 20:51

Deciphera Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:DCPH) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 74% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 82% in the last year.

Although its price has surged higher, it's still not a stretch to say that Deciphera Pharmaceuticals' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 12.6x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Biotechs industry in the United States, where the median P/S ratio is around 11.8x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

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NasdaqGS:DCPH Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry May 24th 2024

How Has Deciphera Pharmaceuticals Performed Recently?

Deciphera Pharmaceuticals could be doing better as it's been growing revenue less than most other companies lately. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to lift, which has kept the P/S from declining. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Deciphera Pharmaceuticals will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Deciphera Pharmaceuticals' is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 27% gain to the company's top line. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 160% overall rise in revenue, aided by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 33% per year during the coming three years according to the nine analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 209% per year, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it interesting that Deciphera Pharmaceuticals is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

What Does Deciphera Pharmaceuticals' P/S Mean For Investors?

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Deciphera Pharmaceuticals' P/S is back within range of the industry median. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

When you consider that Deciphera Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth estimates are fairly muted compared to the broader industry, it's easy to see why we consider it unexpected to be trading at its current P/S ratio. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. Circumstances like this present a risk to current and prospective investors who may see share prices fall if the low revenue growth impacts the sentiment.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Deciphera Pharmaceuticals you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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