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Those Who Invested in Humana (NYSE:HUM) Five Years Ago Are up 47%

Those Who Invested in Humana (NYSE:HUM) Five Years Ago Are up 47%

五年前投資Humana(紐約證券交易所代碼:HUM)的人上漲了47%
Simply Wall St ·  05/24 03:30

When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. But more than that, you probably want to see it rise more than the market average. But Humana Inc. (NYSE:HUM) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 42% over five years, which is below the market return. The last year has been disappointing, with the stock price down 30% in that time.

當你長期購買和持有股票時,你肯定希望它能提供正回報。但不僅如此,你可能希望看到它的漲幅超過市場平均水平。但是Humana Inc.(紐約證券交易所代碼:HUM)尚未實現第二個目標,股價在五年內上漲了42%,低於市場回報率。去年令人失望,當時股價下跌了30%。

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

現在也值得一看公司的基本面,因爲這將有助於我們確定長期股東回報是否與基礎業務的表現相匹配。

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

不可否認,市場有時是有效的,但價格並不總是能反映潛在的業務表現。評估公司情緒變化的一種有缺陷但合理的方法是將每股收益(EPS)與股價進行比較。

Over half a decade, Humana managed to grow its earnings per share at 5.2% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 7% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.

在過去的五年中,Humana設法將其每股收益增長到每年5.2%。每股收益的增長低於同期每年7%的股價增長。因此,可以公平地假設市場對該業務的看法比五年前更高。考慮到五年的收益增長記錄,這並不一定令人驚訝。

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

您可以在下圖中看到 EPS 隨時間推移的變化(點擊圖表查看確切值)。

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:HUM Earnings Per Share Growth May 23rd 2024
紐約證券交易所:HUM 每股收益增長 2024 年 5 月 23 日

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

我們認爲,內部人士在去年進行了大量收購,這是積極的。即便如此,未來的收益對於當前股東能否賺錢要重要得多。在買入或賣出股票之前,我們始終建議仔細研究歷史增長趨勢,可在此處查閱。

What About Dividends?

分紅呢?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Humana's TSR for the last 5 years was 47%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

除了衡量股價回報率外,投資者還應考慮股東總回報率(TSR)。股東總回報率是一種回報計算方法,它考慮了現金分紅的價值(假設收到的任何股息都經過再投資)以及任何貼現資本籌集和分拆的計算價值。可以公平地說,股東總回報率爲支付股息的股票提供了更完整的畫面。碰巧的是,Humana在過去5年的股東總回報率爲47%,超過了前面提到的股價回報率。而且,猜測股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種分歧是沒有好處的!

A Different Perspective

不同的視角

While the broader market gained around 30% in the last year, Humana shareholders lost 29% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 8%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Humana better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Humana you should be aware of.

儘管去年整個市場上漲了約30%,但Humana的股東損失了29%(甚至包括股息)。即使是優質股票的股價有時也會下跌,但我們希望在過於感興趣之前看到企業基本指標的改善。長期投資者不會那麼沮喪,因爲他們本可以在五年內每年賺8%。如果基本面數據繼續顯示長期可持續增長,那麼當前的拋售可能是一個值得考慮的機會。長期跟蹤股價表現總是很有意思的。但是,爲了更好地了解Humana,我們需要考慮許多其他因素。一個很好的例子:我們發現了 Humana 的 1 個警告信號,你應該注意。

Humana is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.

Humana並不是內部人士唯一買入的股票。因此,看看這份內部人士一直在購買的估值誘人的小盤股公司的免費清單。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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