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Medtronic Plc's (NYSE:MDT) Stock's Been Going Strong: Could Weak Financials Mean The Market Will Correct Its Share Price?

Medtronic Plc's (NYSE:MDT) Stock's Been Going Strong: Could Weak Financials Mean The Market Will Correct Its Share Price?

美敦力集團(紐約證券交易所代碼:MDT)的股票一直走強:疲軟的財務狀況是否意味着市場將調整其股價?
Simply Wall St ·  05/24 02:01

Most readers would already be aware that Medtronic's (NYSE:MDT) stock increased significantly by 5.5% over the past month. However, in this article, we decided to focus on its weak fundamentals, as long-term financial performance of a business is what ultimately dictates market outcomes. Specifically, we decided to study Medtronic's ROE in this article.

大多數讀者已經意識到,美敦力(紐約證券交易所代碼:MDT)的股票在過去一個月中大幅增長了5.5%。但是,在本文中,我們決定重點關注其疲軟的基本面,因爲企業的長期財務表現最終決定了市場業績。具體而言,我們決定在本文中研究美敦力的投資回報率。

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

股本回報率或投資回報率是用於評估公司管理層利用公司資本效率的關鍵指標。換句話說,它是衡量公司股東提供的資本回報率的盈利比率。

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE 是如何計算的?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

股本回報率可以使用以下公式計算:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

股本回報率 = 淨利潤(來自持續經營業務)÷ 股東權益

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Medtronic is:

因此,根據上述公式,美敦力的投資回報率爲:

8.1% = US$4.2b ÷ US$52b (Based on the trailing twelve months to January 2024).

8.1% = 42億美元 ÷ 520億美元(基於截至2024年1月的過去十二個月)。

The 'return' is the yearly profit. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.08 in profit.

“回報” 是每年的利潤。另一種思考方式是,公司每持有價值1美元的股權,就能獲得0.08美元的利潤。

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

投資回報率與收益增長有什麼關係?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

到目前爲止,我們已經了解到,投資回報率是衡量公司盈利能力的指標。然後,我們能夠評估公司的收益增長潛力,具體取決於公司對這些利潤進行再投資或 “保留” 了多少及其有效性。假設其他一切保持不變,那麼與不一定具有這些特徵的公司相比,投資回報率和利潤保留率越高,公司的增長率就越高。

A Side By Side comparison of Medtronic's Earnings Growth And 8.1% ROE

美敦力的收益增長和8.1%的投資回報率的並排比較

When you first look at it, Medtronic's ROE doesn't look that attractive. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 11% either. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 2.6% seen by Medtronic was probably the result of it having a lower ROE. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For example, it is possible that the business has allocated capital poorly or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

當你第一次看的時候,美敦力的投資回報率看起來並不那麼吸引人。一項快速的進一步研究表明,該公司的投資回報率與行業平均水平的11%相比也並不理想。因此,說美敦力五年淨收入下降2.6%可能是其投資回報率下降的結果,這可能沒有錯。我們認爲,這裏可能還有其他因素在起作用。例如,企業的資本分配可能不力,或者公司的派息率很高。

So, as a next step, we compared Medtronic's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 9.8% over the last few years.

因此,下一步,我們將美敦力的表現與行業進行了比較,失望地發現,儘管美敦力一直在縮減收益,但該行業在過去幾年中一直以9.8%的速度增長。

past-earnings-growth
NYSE:MDT Past Earnings Growth May 23rd 2024
紐約證券交易所:MDT過去的收益增長 2024年5月23日

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. What is MDT worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether MDT is currently mispriced by the market.

收益增長是對股票進行估值時要考慮的重要指標。投資者接下來需要確定的是,預期的收益增長或缺乏收益是否已經包含在股價中。然後,這可以幫助他們確定股票是爲光明還是暗淡的未來而佈局。今天的 MDT 值多少錢?我們的免費研究報告中的內在價值信息圖有助於可視化市場目前是否對MDT進行了錯誤的定價。

Is Medtronic Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

美敦力是否有效地將其利潤再投資?

With a high three-year median payout ratio of 87% (implying that 13% of the profits are retained), most of Medtronic's profits are being paid to shareholders, which explains the company's shrinking earnings. With only very little left to reinvest into the business, growth in earnings is far from likely.

美敦力的三年派息率中位數很高,爲87%(這意味着保留了13%的利潤),其大部分利潤都支付給了股東,這解釋了該公司收益萎縮的原因。由於對該業務的再投資所剩無幾,收益增長的可能性很小。

Moreover, Medtronic has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 52% over the next three years. As a result, the expected drop in Medtronic's payout ratio explains the anticipated rise in the company's future ROE to 14%, over the same period.

此外,美敦力支付股息已有至少十年或更長時間,這表明管理層一定已經意識到股東更喜歡分紅而不是收益增長。我們最新的分析師數據顯示,該公司的未來派息率預計將在未來三年降至52%。因此,美敦力派息率的預期下降解釋了該公司未來投資回報率同期的預期上升至14%。

Summary

摘要

Overall, we would be extremely cautious before making any decision on Medtronic. As a result of its low ROE and lack of much reinvestment into the business, the company has seen a disappointing earnings growth rate. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

總體而言,在就美敦力做出任何決定之前,我們會非常謹慎。由於投資回報率低且缺乏對該業務的再投資,該公司的收益增長率令人失望。話雖如此,我們研究了分析師的最新預測,發現儘管該公司過去曾縮減收益,但分析師預計其未來收益將增長。這些分析師的預期是基於對該行業的廣泛預期,還是基於公司的基本面?點擊此處進入我們分析師對公司的預測頁面。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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