Inflation Stresses Retail Traders As Fed Cuts Look Unlikely, Crypto Doubts Increase: Survey
Inflation Stresses Retail Traders As Fed Cuts Look Unlikely, Crypto Doubts Increase: Survey
Overall optimism toward the U.S. stock market among retail traders has softened in the second quarter (Q2) of 2024.
零售交易者對美國股市的總體樂觀情緒在2024年第二季度（第二季度）有所減弱。
Some 46% of retail traders expressed a bullish outlook — a decrease from 53% in Q1, according to the latest Trader Sentiment Survey from Charles Schwab.
嘉信理財最新的《交易者信心調查》顯示，約有46％的零售交易者表示看漲前景——低於第一季度的53％。
Inflation is their top concern, rising from 9% to 19% quarter-over-quarter.
通貨膨脹是他們最關心的問題，環比從9％上升到19％。
The survey incorporated responses from 920 active traders holding retail assets of at least $2,000 with Schwab.
該調查納入了920名在施瓦布持有至少2,000美元零售資產的活躍交易者的回應。
Key Highlights
主要亮點
- Fed rate cuts: Trader expectations regarding interest rate cuts have moderated significantly. Only 25% of traders now anticipate more than two rate cuts by year-end. That's a stark decline from 47% in Q1. Meanwhile, the proportion of traders who believe the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this year has surged to 32%. That's up from just 10% in the previous quarter. The unexpected inflation increases in the first quarter and recent signals from Fed officials about the risk of prolonged high interest rates have influenced traders' expectations regarding rate cuts.
- Recession fears abate: While 36% of traders still see a recession as likely in 2024, more than half now consider it unlikely. As such, 40% of them believe in the Fed's ability to achieve a soft landing.
- Energy vs. Real Estate: Bullish sentiment in the energy sector, as tracked by the The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLE), has reached 64% — the highest among all sectors. Only 11% are bearish. That's in stark contrast to the real estate sector, as monitored through the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:VNQ), where 52% are bearish and 19% are bullish.
- Mixed AI sentiment: Despite 56% of traders remaining bullish on AI stocks, there is growing concern about overvaluation. About 44% view AI as the most crowded trade.
- High interest in options trading: Approximately two-thirds of traders plan to engage in options trading in 2024. Interest in zero days-to-expiration (0DTE) options remains low at 13%.
- Increased research and vetting time: More traders are spending additional time vetting or researching trades before execution due to their economic expectations.
- Cryptocurrency skepticism: A significant 79% of traders perceive cryptocurrencies as risky, speculative investments. Nearly two-thirds are uncertain about the future of cryptocurrencies as an asset class, and only 17% consider them smart investments.
- 聯儲局降息：交易者對降息的預期已大幅放緩。現在只有25％的交易者預計到年底將有兩次以上的降息。這比第一季度的47％大幅下降。同時，認爲聯儲局今年不會降息的交易者比例已激增至32％。這比上一季度的10％有所上升。第一季度意想不到的通貨膨脹率上升以及聯儲局官員最近發出的關於長期高利率風險的信號影響了交易者對降息的預期。
- 對經濟衰退的擔憂減弱：儘管36％的交易者仍認爲2024年可能出現衰退，但現在有超過一半的交易者認爲不太可能。因此，他們中有40％的人相信聯儲局有能力實現軟着陸。
- 能源與房地產：根據能源精選行業SPDR基金（紐約證券交易所代碼：XLE）的追蹤，能源行業的看漲情緒已達到64％，是所有行業中最高的。只有11％的人看跌。這與通過Vanguard房地產ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：VNQ）監測的房地產板塊形成鮮明對比，其中52％看跌，19％看漲。
- 人工智能情緒喜憂參半：儘管有56％的交易者仍然看好人工智能股票，但人們對估值過高的擔憂與日俱增。約有44％的人認爲人工智能是最擁擠的行業。
- 對期權交易的高度興趣：大約三分之二的交易者計劃在2024年從事期權交易。零天到期（0DTE）期權的利息仍然很低，爲13％。
- 增加研究和審查時間：由於經濟預期，越來越多的交易者在執行前花費更多時間審查或研究交易。
- 對加密貨幣持懷疑態度：79％的交易者將加密貨幣視爲風險的投機性投資。近三分之二的人不確定加密貨幣作爲一種資產類別的未來，只有17％的人認爲它們是明智的投資。
Overall, Schwab's Q2 2024 Trader Sentiment Survey underscores a shifting landscape for retail traders compared to the previous quarter, marked by growing inflation concerns and moderated expectations for rate cuts.
總體而言，施瓦布的2024年第二季度交易者信心調查表明，與上一季度相比，零售交易者的格局發生了變化，其特點是通貨膨脹擔憂加劇，對降息的預期有所緩和。
Despite these uncertainties, traders continue to seek opportunities, particularly in individual stocks and energy. They maintain a cautious stance on cryptocurrencies and real estate.
儘管存在這些不確定性，但交易者仍在繼續尋找機會，尤其是在個股和能源方面。他們對加密貨幣和房地產保持謹慎立場。
Now Read: US Business Activity Resurges In May, Return To 'Fed's 2% Target Still Seems Elusive'
立即閱讀: 美國商業活動在5月份復甦，回到 “聯儲局2％的目標似乎仍然難以實現”
Image: Shutterstock
圖片：Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。