Research Firm Boosts Ethereum Spot ETF Approval Probability To 90%: But Will It Be A 'Sell The News' Event?
Research Firm Boosts Ethereum Spot ETF Approval Probability To 90%: But Will It Be A 'Sell The News' Event?
Cryptocurrency research firm 10x Research raised the chances of the SEC greenlighting the Ethereum (CRYTO: ETH) spot ETF later today to 90%.
加密貨幣研究公司10x Research今天晚些時候將美國證券交易委員會批准以太坊（CRYTO：ETH）現貨ETF的可能性提高到90％。
What Happened: In its latest newsletter, 10x Research deemed the approval a "formality". It noted that an X post by SEC Chair Gary Gensler cautioning investors of potential risks–similar to the one before the approval of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs in January–could come around 9 a.m. EDT. This is typically a sign of the approval being immediate.
發生了什麼：10x Research在其最新時事通訊中將批准視爲 “形式”。它指出，美國證券交易委員會主席加里·根斯勒的X帖子可能會在美國東部時間上午9點左右發佈，該帖子警告投資者注意潛在風險，類似於比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）ETF在1月份批准之前的帖子。這通常表示立即獲得批准。
90%+ Probability An #Ethereum ETF Approval Today, Sell The News? pic.twitter.com/aMQ1JpaIqX
— 10x Research (@10x_Research) May 23, 2024
90% 以上的概率今天獲得 #Ethereum ETF 批准，賣掉新聞？pic.twitter.com/amq1jpaiq
— 10x 研究 (@10x_Research) 2024 年 5 月 23 日
The analytics platform highlighted that the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (OTC:ETHE) has narrowed its discount to its net asset value (NAV) to 8% from 30% a week ago.
該分析平台強調，灰度以太坊信託（場外交易代碼：ETHE）已將其淨資產價值（NAV）的折扣從一週前的30％縮小至8％。
"An 8% discount implies at least a 90% probability that an ETF would be approved," the firm pointed out.
該公司指出：“8％的折扣意味着ETF獲得批准的可能性至少爲90％。”
The research firm also foresaw the approval becoming a "sell the news" event. These fears aligned with the moves of Ethereum co-founder Jeffrey Wilcke who transferred nearly 10,000 ETH to cryptocurrency exchange Kraken.
該研究公司還預計，該批准將成爲 “推銷新聞” 事件。這些擔憂與以太坊聯合創始人傑弗裏·威爾克的舉動一致，後者向加密貨幣交易所Kraken轉移了近10,000枚以太幣。
#Ethereum co-founder Jeffrey Wilcke (@jeffehh) deposited 10,000 $ETH ($37.38M) to #Kraken at $3,738 ~2hrs ago.
— Spot On Chain (@spotonchain) May 23, 2024
Since the start of 2024, he has deposited 24,300 $ETH to Kraken at ~$3,108 ($75.52M), with the last deposit done before the price started to soar!
Currently, Jeffrey... pic.twitter.com/sERRId8yfj
#Ethereum 聯合創始人傑弗裏·威爾克（@jeffehh）在大約 2 小時前以 3,738 美元的價格向 #Kraken 存入了 10,000 美元以太幣（3,738 萬美元）。
— Spot On Chain (@spotonchain) 2024 年 5 月 23 日
自2024年初以來，他已經以約3,108美元（合7,552萬美元）的價格向Kraken存入了24,300美元的以太幣，最後一次存款是在價格開始飆升之前完成的！
目前，傑弗裏... pic.twitter.com/serrid8YFJ
Why It Matters: The mood in the cryptocurrency market was upbeat as VanEck's spot Ether ETF was listed by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) — a necessary precursor to SEC approval. Note that the final decision on VanEck's application is expected to come from the SEC later today.
爲何重要：隨着VanEck的現貨以太ETF由存託信託和清算公司（DTCC）上市，加密貨幣市場的情緒非常樂觀——這是美國證券交易委員會批准的必要先決條件。請注意，有關VanEck申請的最終決定預計將在今天晚些時候由美國證券交易委員會作出。
Alongside, a slew of other ETF hopefuls, including BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:BLK) amended their 19b-4 filings for spot Ether ETFs.
此外，包括貝萊德公司（紐約證券交易所代碼：BLK）在內的許多其他有希望的ETF投資者修改了現貨以太ETF的19b-4申報表。
Meanwhile, the chances of approval on decentralized prediction market Polymarket jumped to 67%
同時，去中心化預測市場Polymarket獲得批准的可能性躍升至67％
Price Action: At the time of writing, Ether was exchanging hands at $3,785.04, following marginal gains of 0.83% in the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
價格走勢：根據Benzinga Pro的數據，在撰寫本文時，以太幣的交易價格爲3,785.04美元，此前過去24小時的邊際漲幅爲0.83％。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。