Brief performance review
On May 22, 2024, the company disclosed the results announcement for the first quarter of 2024. In 2024Q1, it achieved revenue of 29.4 billion yuan, an increase of 16.6% over the previous year, and non-IFRS net profit of 4.39 billion yuan, an increase of 10347.6% over the previous year.
Management analysis
A HK$16 billion repurchase program will soon be launched to continue strengthening shareholder returns. The company announced that after the expiration of the existing share repurchase plan, a new share repurchase plan will commence. The company can repurchase Class B common shares worth no more than HK$16 billion within the next 36 months. As of May 22, the company had repurchased a total of HK$3.09 billion of the company's shares under the existing share repurchase plan.
Continuous optimization of costs and expenses has led to an increase in the company's profit margin. 2024Q1's gross margin reached 54.8%, +8.37 pct year on year and +1.71 pct month on month. Expense side: sales expenses of 9.4 billion yuan, sales expense ratio of 31.9%, year-on-year -2.68 pct, month-on-month +0.59 pct; R&D expenses of 2.8 billion yuan, R&D expenditure rate 9.7%, -1.91pct, month-on-month -0.46pct; management expenses of 460 million yuan, management expense ratio 1.6%, -2.07 pct year on year, -0.74 pct month-on-month.
User growth ROI increased, and user activity grew steadily. 2024Q1, Kuaishou DAU reached 394 million, up 5.2% year on year, MAU reached 697 million, up 6.6% year on year, and total user usage time increased 8.6% year on year. By optimizing the channel structure for user growth and combining algorithms to predict the retention rate of new users, the company drives user growth ROI.
Online marketing: AI empowers advertising business efficiency, and multi-industry recovery promotes growth. In 2024Q1, the company's online marketing revenue was 16.7 billion yuan, up 27.4% year on year. The application of intelligent marketing solutions boosted the number of active marketing customers by nearly 90% year over year. Internal circulation advertising: The steady growth of GMV provides the foundation for growth, and product function upgrades enhance customer marketing effectiveness and desire; external circulation advertising: revenue has maintained strong year-on-year growth, and the media information, game and education industries are growing brilliantly. Average daily payment consumption on the 2024Q side increased by more than 4 times over the same period last year. IAA game link connectivity led to an increase in game consumption, and marketing consumption in the education industry nearly doubled.
E-commerce: Pan-shelf e-commerce is growing strongly. 2024Q1's e-commerce GMV reached 288.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%. The number of monthly paying users reached 126 million, an increase of 22.4% year on year, and the number of monthly sales merchants increased by about 70% year on year. Pan-shelf e-commerce grew strongly, accounting for about 25% of GMV, and short video GMV increased nearly 100% year over year.
Live: Ecological governance continues to be carried out, laying the foundation for sustainable development. In 2024Q1, the company's live streaming business revenue was 8.6 billion yuan, down 8% year on year.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's NON-IFRS net profit for 2024/2025/2026 to be 175/256/32.1 billion yuan, respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to 2024/2025/2026 NON-IFRS PE will be 13.1/9/7.16X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Advertising recovery falls short of expected risk; e-commerce GMV growth falls short of expected risk due to weak consumption; user growth falls short of expected risk.