High Interest Rates Here To Stay? Fed Minutes Reveal Disinflation Takes 'Longer Than Previously Thought'
High Interest Rates Here To Stay? Fed Minutes Reveal Disinflation Takes 'Longer Than Previously Thought'
The minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting released Wednesday reveal increased uncertainty about the swift decline of inflation toward the 2% target, with the majority of board members indicating the need to keep restrictive interest rates for an extended period.
週三公佈的最新聯邦公開市場委員會會議紀要顯示，通貨膨脹率迅速下降至2％的目標的不確定性增加，大多數董事會成員表示需要長期保持限制性利率。
Participants observed that while inflation eased over the last year, "recent data had not increased their confidence
in progress toward 2%," suggesting that "the disinflation process would likely take longer than previously thought."
參與者觀察到，儘管去年通貨膨脹有所緩解，但 “最近的數據並未增強他們的信心”
正在向2％邁進”，這表明 “反通貨膨脹過程可能需要比先前想象的更長的時間。”
Although monetary policy was viewed as restrictive, many participants expressed uncertainty about the extent of its restrictiveness. They attributed this uncertainty to the possibility that high interest rates might be having less impact than in the past.
儘管貨幣政策被認爲是限制性的，但許多與會者對其限制程度表示不確定。他們將這種不確定性歸因於高利率的影響可能比過去小。
In the May press conference, Chair Jerome Powell described a rate hike as "unlikely." Yet the minutes show that "various participants" expressed a willingness to tighten policy further if inflation risks materialize in a way that would justify such an action.
在5月的新聞發佈會上，主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾將加息描述爲 “不太可能”。然而，會議紀要顯示，如果通貨膨脹風險以合理的方式出現，“各種參與者” 表示願意進一步收緊政策。
Almost all participants supported the decision to begin reducing the pace of the central bank's securities holdings sales; however, a few would have preferred to continue at the current pace.
幾乎所有參與者都支持開始降低央行持有證券銷售步伐的決定；但是，少數人本來希望繼續保持目前的速度。
Regarding the economic outlook, the Fed staff's economic projection was similar to the March outlook but noted that deteriorating household financial positions, especially for lower-income households, might prove to be a bigger drag on activity than anticipated.
關於經濟前景，聯儲局工作人員的經濟預測與3月份的前景相似，但他們指出，家庭財務狀況惡化，尤其是低收入家庭的財務狀況，對活動的拖累可能大於預期。
The minutes reiterated the need to maintain a data-dependent policy going forward.
會議紀要重申了未來需要維持依賴數據的政策。
Market Reactions
市場反應
U.S. short-term interest-rate futures remained largely unchanged after the FOMC minutes, with traders still assigning a 61% probability to a September start for Fed rate cuts.
聯邦公開市場委員會會議紀要公佈後，美國短期利率期貨基本保持不變，交易員仍認爲聯儲局9月開始降息的可能性爲61％。
Treasury yields saw a marginal uptick. Yields on a two-year Treasury note inched to 4.88%, eyeing the highest close since May 3. Long-dated 30-year Treasury yields remained flat.
美國國債收益率略有上升。兩年期美國國債收益率小幅升至4.88％，創5月3日以來的最高收盤價。長期的30年期美國國債收益率保持平穩。
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), slightly strengthened against peers, up 0.2%.
景順數據庫美元指數看漲基金ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：UUP）追蹤的美元指數（DXY）兌同業略有走強，上漲0.2％。
Stocks held losses for the session as risk sentiment turned more cautious. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) was down 0.4% at 2:10 p.m. EDT, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, as monitored through the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) was 0.2% lower.
由於風險情緒變得更加謹慎，該交易日股市保持虧損。美國東部時間下午2點10分，SPDR標準普爾500指數ETF信託（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPY）下跌0.4％，而通過景順QQ信託（納斯達克股票代碼：QQQ）監測的以科技股爲主的納斯達克100指數下跌0.2％。
Small caps underperformed large-cap stocks, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) down 0.5%.
小盤股表現低於大盤股，iShares Russell 2000 ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：IWM）下跌0.5％。
Photo: Federalreserve/Flickr and Bylolo/Unsplash
照片：聯儲局/Flickr 和 Bylolo/Unsplash
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。