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Is Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) A Risky Investment?

Is Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) A Risky Investment?

Mondelez International(纳斯达克股票代码:MDLZ)是一项风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  05/22 23:32

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

由伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李露对此毫不掩饰,他说:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久的资本损失。”当你检查公司的资产负债表的风险时,考虑它的资产负债表是很自然的,因为企业倒闭时通常会涉及债务。我们注意到,Mondelez International, Inc.(纳斯达克股票代码:MDLZ)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但更重要的问题是:这笔债务会带来多大的风险?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

债务何时危险?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

债务是帮助企业增长的工具,但如果企业无法还清贷方,那么债务就任其摆布。资本主义的重要部分是 “创造性破坏” 的过程,在这个过程中,倒闭的企业被银行家无情地清算。但是,更频繁(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,公司必须以低廉的价格发行股票,永久稀释股东,以支撑其资产负债表。但是,通过取代稀释,债务可以成为需要资本以高回报率投资增长的企业的一个非常好的工具。在考虑企业使用多少债务时,要做的第一件事是将其现金和债务放在一起考虑。

What Is Mondelez International's Net Debt?

Mondelez International的净负债是多少?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Mondelez International had US$19.1b of debt in March 2024, down from US$22.2b, one year before. On the flip side, it has US$1.38b in cash leading to net debt of about US$17.7b.

你可以点击下图查看历史数字,但它显示Mondelez International在2024年3月有191亿美元的债务,低于一年前的222亿美元。另一方面,它拥有13.8亿美元的现金,净负债约为177亿美元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
NasdaqGS:MDLZ Debt to Equity History May 22nd 2024
NASDAQGS: MDLZ 债券与股本的比率历史记录 2024 年 5 月 22 日

A Look At Mondelez International's Liabilities

看看Mondelez International的负债

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Mondelez International had liabilities of US$25.3b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$23.8b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$1.38b and US$4.81b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$42.9b.

我们可以从最新的资产负债表中看出,Mondelez International的负债为253亿美元,在此之后到期的负债为238亿美元。另一方面,它有13.8亿美元的现金和价值48.1亿美元的应收账款将在一年内到期。因此,其负债超过其现金和(短期)应收账款总额429亿美元。

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Mondelez International has a huge market capitalization of US$94.3b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

尽管这可能看起来很多,但还不错,因为Mondelez International的市值高达943亿美元,因此如果需要,它可能会通过筹集资金来加强其资产负债表。但很明显,我们一定要仔细研究它能否在不稀释的情况下管理债务。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们相对于收益的债务水平。第一个是净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA),第二个是其利息和税前收益(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出(或简称利息保障)的多少倍。这种方法的优势在于,我们既考虑了债务的绝对数量(包括净负债与息税折旧摊销前利润),也考虑了与该债务相关的实际利息支出(及其利息覆盖率)。

We'd say that Mondelez International's moderate net debt to EBITDA ratio ( being 2.1), indicates prudence when it comes to debt. And its strong interest cover of 14.1 times, makes us even more comfortable. Importantly, Mondelez International grew its EBIT by 44% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Mondelez International's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

我们可以说,Mondelez International的净负债与息税折旧摊销前利润的比率适中(为2.1),这表明在债务问题上谨慎行事。而且其14.1倍的强大利息覆盖率使我们更加自在。重要的是,在过去的十二个月中,Mondelez International的息税前利润增长了44%,这种增长将使其更容易处理债务。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但是,未来的收益将决定Mondelez International未来维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果您专注于未来,可以查看这份显示分析师利润预测的免费报告。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Mondelez International recorded free cash flow worth 59% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

最后,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润根本无法减少债务。因此,我们总是检查息税前利润中有多少转化为自由现金流。在最近三年中,鉴于自由现金流不包括利息和税收,Mondelez International记录了相当于其息税前利润59%的自由现金流,这几乎是正常的。这种自由现金流使公司处于有利地位,可以在适当的时候偿还债务。

Our View

我们的观点

Mondelez International's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. But truth be told we feel its level of total liabilities does undermine this impression a bit. When we consider the range of factors above, it looks like Mondelez International is pretty sensible with its use of debt. While that brings some risk, it can also enhance returns for shareholders. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Mondelez International is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

Mondelez International的利息保障表明,它可以像克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多在对阵14岁以下的守门员的比赛中进球一样轻松地处理债务。但说实话,我们认为其总负债水平确实稍微削弱了这种印象。当我们考虑上述一系列因素时,看来Mondelez International使用债务是相当明智的。尽管这带来了一些风险,但也可以提高股东的回报。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但归根结底,每家公司都可以控制资产负债表之外存在的风险。请注意,Mondelez International在我们的投资分析中显示了1个警告信号,您应该知道...

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

毕竟,如果你对一家资产负债表坚如磐石的快速成长型公司更感兴趣,那么请立即查看我们的净现金增长股票清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

译文内容由第三方软件翻译。


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