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Is Waste Connections (NYSE:WCN) A Risky Investment?

Is Waste Connections (NYSE:WCN) A Risky Investment?

Waste Connections(紐約證券交易所代碼:WCN)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  05/21 23:00

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Waste Connections, Inc. (NYSE:WCN) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

霍華德·馬克斯說得好,他說的不是擔心股價的波動,而是 “永久損失的可能性是我擔心的風險... 也是我認識的每位實際投資者所擔心的風險。”當我們思考一家公司的風險有多大時,我們總是喜歡考慮其債務的用途,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。我們可以看到,Waste Connections, Inc.(紐約證券交易所代碼:WCN)確實在其業務中使用了債務。但是這筆債務是股東關心的問題嗎?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

債務會帶來什麼風險?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

當企業無法通過自由現金流或以誘人的價格籌集資金來輕鬆履行這些義務時,債務和其他負債就會成爲風險。資本主義的組成部分是 “創造性破壞” 過程,在這種過程中,倒閉的企業被銀行家無情地清算。但是,更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司爲了控制債務,必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東。當然,債務可以成爲企業的重要工具,尤其是資本密集型企業。當我們檢查債務水平時,我們首先要同時考慮現金和債務水平。

What Is Waste Connections's Debt?

Waste Connections 的債務是什麼?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2024 Waste Connections had US$7.82b of debt, an increase on US$6.94b, over one year. Net debt is about the same, since the it doesn't have much cash.

你可以點擊下圖查看歷史數字,但它顯示,截至2024年3月,Waste Connections在一年內有78.2億美元的債務,比69.4億美元有所增加。淨負債大致相同,因爲它沒有太多現金。

debt-equity-history-analysis
NYSE:WCN Debt to Equity History May 21st 2024
紐約證券交易所:WCN債務與股本的比率歷史記錄 2024年5月21日

How Healthy Is Waste Connections' Balance Sheet?

Waste Connections的資產負債表有多健康?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Waste Connections had liabilities of US$1.63b due within a year, and liabilities of US$9.66b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$130.5m and US$896.7m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$10.3b.

最新的資產負債表數據顯示,Waste Connections的負債爲16.3億美元,之後到期的負債爲96.6億美元。另一方面,它有1.305億美元的現金和價值8.967億美元的應收賬款將在一年內到期。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款總額103億美元。

Waste Connections has a very large market capitalization of US$43.2b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

Waste Connections的市值非常大,爲432億美元,因此,如果有需要,它很可能會籌集資金以改善其資產負債表。但很明顯,我們一定要仔細研究它能否在不稀釋的情況下管理債務。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

爲了擴大公司相對於收益的負債規模,我們計算其淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),將其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)除以利息支出(利息保障)。這樣,我們既考慮債務的絕對數量,也考慮爲債務支付的利率。

Waste Connections's debt is 3.2 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 5.1 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. We saw Waste Connections grow its EBIT by 5.7% in the last twelve months. Whilst that hardly knocks our socks off it is a positive when it comes to debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Waste Connections's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Waste Connections的債務是其息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的3.2倍,其息稅前利潤支付了利息支出的5.1倍。綜上所述,這意味着,儘管我們不希望債務水平上升,但我們認爲它可以承受目前的槓桿率。在過去的十二個月中,我們看到Waste Connections的息稅前利潤增長了5.7%。儘管這幾乎無法使我們大吃一驚,但在債務方面卻是一個積極因素。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,未來的收益將決定Waste Connections未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Waste Connections generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 85% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.

最後,公司只能用冷硬現金償還債務,不能用會計利潤償還債務。因此,我們顯然需要研究息稅前利潤是否會帶來相應的自由現金流。在過去三年中,Waste Connections產生的自由現金流相當於其息稅前利潤的85%,超出了我們的預期。這使其在償還債務方面處於非常有利的地位。

Our View

我們的觀點

Waste Connections's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its net debt to EBITDA. All these things considered, it appears that Waste Connections can comfortably handle its current debt levels. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Waste Connections you should know about.

Waste Connections將息稅前利潤轉換爲自由現金流,這表明它可以像克里斯蒂亞諾·羅納爾多在對陣14歲以下的守門員的比賽中進球一樣輕鬆地處理債務。但是,更悲觀的是,我們對其淨負債佔息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比例有些擔憂。考慮到所有這些因素,Waste Connections似乎可以輕鬆應對其當前的債務水平。從好的方面來看,這種槓桿作用可以提高股東的回報,但潛在的缺點是損失風險更大,因此值得關注資產負債表。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。這些風險可能很難發現。每家公司都有它們,我們發現了兩個你應該知道的廢物連接警告標誌。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有興趣投資能夠在沒有債務負擔的情況下增加利潤的企業,請查看這份資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業的免費清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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