Will Nvidia Q1 Print Disappoint? Munster Sees Near-Term Hit From 'Osborne Effect' But Says AI Stalwart Will 'Grow Faster For Longer'
Will Nvidia Q1 Print Disappoint? Munster Sees Near-Term Hit From 'Osborne Effect' But Says AI Stalwart Will 'Grow Faster For Longer'
Nvidia Corp.'s (NASDAQ:NVDA) earnings, due this week, have put macro and rate concerns on the back burner, with investor attention solely focused on the AI bellwether's fiscal-year 2025 first-quarter report. Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster on Monday offered his take on what to expect from the report when it drops in after the market close on Wednesday.
英偉達公司's（納斯達克股票代碼：NVDA）將於本週公佈的業績將宏觀和利率擔憂置於次要地位，投資者的注意力僅集中在人工智能領頭羊的2025財年第一季度報告上。深水資產管理管理管理合夥人吉恩·芒斯特週一對該報告在週三收盤後發佈時對該報告的預期發表了看法。
Disappointment In The Cards? The impending launch of Blackwell, Nvidia's new flagship GPU platform, this fall creates a risk for the April, July and even October quarters, said Munster in a post on X, formerly Twitter. Customers may delay or cancel orders for the current H200 flagship chip and wait for the new chips this fall, he said, terming it as the "Osborne Effect."
對卡片感到失望？芒斯特在X（前身爲Twitter）上的一篇文章中說，英偉達的新旗艦GPU平台Blackwell即將在今年秋天推出，這給4月、7月甚至10月的季度帶來了風險。他說，客戶可能會推遲或取消當前H200旗艦芯片的訂單，並在今年秋天等待新芯片，稱其爲 “奧斯本效應”。
Osborne Effect refers to customers canceling or deferring orders for the current product in anticipation of the next iteration that would launched imminently.
奧斯本效應是指客戶取消或推遲當前產品的訂單，以等待即將推出的下一次迭代。
Munster expects the company to go all out in dampening the Osborne Effect. "There are rumors that Nvidia will push any customers who delay or cancel orders to the back of the waitlist for any Blackwell," he said, adding that he believes the rumors are true.
芒斯特預計，該公司將全力以赴抑制奧斯本效應。他說：“有傳言稱，Nvidia會將任何延遲或取消訂單的客戶推到任何Blackwell的候補名單的後面，” 他補充說，他認爲傳聞是真的。
"Nvidia is doing what it can to manage the product transition without a blow-up," the venture capitalist said. He expects investors to react negatively at first to any potential disappointment and then quickly realize "today's pain is for next quarter's gain."
這位風險投資家說：“Nvidia正在盡其所能管理產品過渡，而不會出現爆炸。”他預計，投資者首先會對任何潛在的失望情緒做出負面反應，然後很快意識到 “今天的痛苦是爲了下一季度的收益”。
Munster expects orders to rebound once the Blackwell series, namely B100 B200, and GB200, are released.
芒斯特預計，一旦布萊克韋爾系列，即B100 B200和 GB200 發佈，訂單將反彈。
Forward Outlook: Munster sees any commentary about the July quarter to be extrapolated to what it would mean for calendar year 2025 earnings and revenue growth. The tech investor expects Nvidia to grow by about 85% this year. The current consensus calls for 2025 calendar year earnings growth of about 30% and revenue growth of 28%.
前瞻展望：芒斯特認爲，對7月季度的任何評論都可以推斷出它對2025日曆年度的收益和收入增長的意義。這位科技投資者預計，英偉達今年將增長約85％。目前的共識要求2025年日曆年度的收益增長約30％，收入增長28％。
Nvidia shares traded at a surprisingly conservative price-earnings growth ratio of one time and forward price-earnings multiple of 29 times.
英偉達股票的交易價格出人意料的保守市盈增長率爲一倍，遠期市盈倍數爲29倍。
"My sense is results in CY25 will comfortably exceed the 30%. In other words, the AI build is still just starting, and Nvidia will grow faster for longer," Munster said.
“我的感覺是，25財年的業績將輕鬆超過30％。換句話說，人工智能建設仍剛剛開始，Nvidia將在更長的時間內更快地增長，” 芒斯特說。
Analysts, on average, expect Nvidia to report first-quarter non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.12, sharply higher than the 98 cents per share reported a year ago. The consensus calls for nearly 247% revenue growth to $22.58 billion.
分析師平均預計，英偉達公佈的第一季度非公認會計准則每股收益爲5.12美元，大大高於去年同期公佈的每股98美分。該共識要求收入增長近247％，達到225.8億美元。
Nvidia shares ended Monday's session up 2.49% at $947.80, according to Benzinga Pro data. The stock has soared over 91% this year.
根據Benzinga Pro的數據，英偉達股價週一收盤上漲2.49％，至947.80美元。該股今年飆升了91％以上。
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照片來自 Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。