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Is Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX:C07) Using Too Much Debt?

Is Jardine Cycle & Carriage (SGX:C07) Using Too Much Debt?

怡和運輸(新加坡證券交易所股票代碼:C07)是否使用過多的債務?
Simply Wall St ·  05/21 13:43

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Jardine Cycle & Carriage Limited (SGX:C07) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

由伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李露對此毫不掩飾,他說:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。”因此,很明顯,當你考慮任何給定股票的風險時,你需要考慮債務,因爲過多的債務會使公司陷入困境。我們可以看到,怡和自行車有限公司(新加坡證券交易所股票代碼:C07)確實在其業務中使用了債務。但真正的問題是這筆債務是否使公司面臨風險。

When Is Debt A Problem?

債務何時會成爲問題?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

當企業無法通過自由現金流或以誘人的價格籌集資金來輕鬆履行這些義務時,債務和其他負債就會成爲風險。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。儘管這種情況並不常見,但我們經常會看到負債公司永久稀釋股東,因爲貸款人迫使他們以不良价格籌集資金。當然,許多公司使用債務爲增長提供資金,而不會產生任何負面影響。當我們檢查債務水平時,我們首先要同時考慮現金和債務水平。

What Is Jardine Cycle & Carriage's Debt?

Jardine Cycle & Carriage的債務是什麼?

As you can see below, at the end of December 2023, Jardine Cycle & Carriage had US$7.31b of debt, up from US$5.95b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had US$2.48b in cash, and so its net debt is US$4.83b.

如下所示,截至2023年12月底,怡和運輸的債務爲73.1億美元,高於去年同期的59.5億美元。點擊圖片查看更多細節。但是,它也有24.8億美元的現金,因此其淨負債爲48.3億美元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SGX:C07 Debt to Equity History May 21st 2024
2024 年 5 月 21 日 SGX: C07 債券與股本比率的歷史記錄

A Look At Jardine Cycle & Carriage's Liabilities

看看怡和自行車的負債

According to the last reported balance sheet, Jardine Cycle & Carriage had liabilities of US$9.20b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$5.38b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$2.48b and US$3.07b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$9.03b.

根據上次報告的資產負債表,怡和運輸的負債爲92.0億美元,12個月後到期的負債爲53.8億美元。另一方面,它有24.8億美元的現金和價值30.7億美元的應收賬款將在一年內到期。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款總額90.3億美元。

Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of US$8.06b, we think shareholders really should watch Jardine Cycle & Carriage's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.

鑑於這一赤字實際上高於公司80.6億美元的市值,我們認爲股東們確實應該關注怡和的債務水平,就像父母第一次看着孩子騎自行車一樣。在公司必須迅速清理資產負債表的情況下,股東似乎可能會遭受大規模稀釋。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

我們使用兩個主要比率來告知我們相對於收益的債務水平。第一個是淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),第二個是其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出(或簡稱利息保障)的多少倍。這種方法的優勢在於,我們既考慮了債務的絕對數量(包括淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤),也考慮了與該債務相關的實際利息支出(及其利息覆蓋率)。

Jardine Cycle & Carriage has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.2. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 28.9 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Also good is that Jardine Cycle & Carriage grew its EBIT at 15% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Jardine Cycle & Carriage's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

怡和自行車的淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比率很低,僅爲1.2。其息稅前利潤可支付其高達28.9倍的利息支出。因此,你可以爭辯說,它受到債務的威脅並不比大象受到老鼠的威脅更大。同樣不錯的是,怡和運輸的息稅前利潤比去年增長了15%,進一步提高了其管理債務的能力。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,未來的收益比什麼都重要,將決定怡和運輸未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果您專注於未來,可以查看這份顯示分析師利潤預測的免費報告。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Jardine Cycle & Carriage recorded free cash flow worth 72% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤根本無法減少債務。因此,合乎邏輯的步驟是研究息稅前利潤與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。在最近三年中,Jardine Cycle & Carriage錄得的自由現金流佔其息稅前利潤的72%,鑑於自由現金流不包括利息和稅收,這幾乎是正常的。這種自由現金流使公司處於有利地位,可以在適當的時候償還債務。

Our View

我們的觀點

Jardine Cycle & Carriage's interest cover was a real positive on this analysis, as was its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow. In contrast, our confidence was undermined by its apparent struggle to handle its total liabilities. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Jardine Cycle & Carriage is managing its debt quite well. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example Jardine Cycle & Carriage has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.

Jardine Cycle & Carriage的利息保障對該分析非常樂觀,其將息稅前利潤轉換爲自由現金流也是如此。相比之下,我們的信心因其明顯難以處理總負債而受到削弱。當我們考慮上述所有因素時,在我們看來,怡和自行車運輸的債務管理得很好。話雖如此,負擔足夠沉重,我們建議所有股東密切關注。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。例如,Jardine Cycle & Carriage 有 2 個警告標誌(以及 1 個有點不愉快),我們認爲你應該知道。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有興趣投資能夠在沒有債務負擔的情況下增加利潤的企業,請查看這份資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業的免費清單。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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