REIT Watch - Retail Flows Remain Cautiously Optimistic for S-Reits
REIT Watch - Retail Flows Remain Cautiously Optimistic for S-Reits
Softer US inflation data that came out the past week fuelled expectations of rate cuts once more. The US consumer price index increased 0.3 per cent from March to April but was lower than what markets were expecting.
上週公佈的疲軟的美國通脹數據再次激發了人們對降息的預期。從3月到4月，美國消費者物價指數上漲了0.3％，但低於市場的預期。
This resulted in markets reacting positively to the news which saw Asian equities rally on Thursday (May 16) and Treasury yields decline.
這導致市場對週四（5月16日）亞洲股市上漲，美國國債收益率下降的消息反應積極。
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, traders are also pricing in a 70 per cent probability of a rate cut as early as September.
根據芝加哥商品交易所聯儲局觀察工具，交易員還認爲最早在9月降息的可能性爲70％。
The iEdge S-Reit Index also rallied on Thursday, gaining 2 per cent. Within the sector, some of the top movers for the day were Prime US Reit, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, Keppel DC Reit, Mapletree Logistics Trust, and CapitaLand India Trust.
iEdge S-Reit指數也在週四上漲，上漲了2％。在該行業中，當天的一些漲幅最大的是美國Prime房地產投資信託基金、豐樹泛亞商業信託基金、吉寶華盛頓房地產投資信託基金、豐樹物流信託和凱德置地印度信託。
High interest rates impact Reits in a few ways, such as higher financing costs, thereby potentially affecting distributions, as well as lower property valuations. This is perhaps why the sector has declined close to 24 per cent in price since end-2021 (Fed funds rate hikes started in March 2022) up till Q1 2024.
高利率以多種方式影響房地產投資信託基金，例如更高的融資成本，從而可能影響分配，以及降低房地產估值。這也許就是爲什麼該行業自2021年底（聯儲局基金於2022年3月開始加息）至2024年第一季度以來價格已下跌近24％的原因。
However, investors should remember that Reits invest in income-generating assets and distribute rental income in the form of distributions to Reit unitholders.
但是，投資者應記住，房地產投資信託基金投資於創收資產，並以分配的形式向房地產投資信託基金單位持有人分配租金收入。
Hence, including dividend distributions, this brings S-Reits' total returns to a fall of 12 per cent, halving their price decline.
因此，包括股息分配在內，這使S-Reits的總回報率下降了12％，使其價格下跌幅度減半。
In terms of balance sheet strength, the S-Reit sector has an average gearing ratio of 38 per cent, below the regulatory limit of 50 per cent.
就資產負債表實力而言，S-Reit板塊的平均資產負債率爲38％，低於50％的監管上限。
With lower leverage ratios and close to three-quarters of S-Reits' debts entered in fixed rates, Nareit – the worldwide representative voice for Reits and real estate companies with an interest in US real estate – also echoes that disciplined balance sheets will insulate Reits from higher rates.
由於槓桿率較低，而且近四分之三的S-Reits債務以固定利率記賬，Nareit——房地產投資信託基金和對美國房地產感興趣的房地產公司的全球代表性代言人——也反映了嚴格的資產負債表將使房地產投資信託基金免受更高利率的影響。
In the US, the real estate sector has also done well, having seen two stocks beat earnings for every one stock that missed, compared to the broader market's every three (beat earnings) to two (missed earnings) ratio.
在美國，房地產行業也表現良好，每錯過一隻股票就有兩隻股票超過收益，而整個市場的收益率爲每三隻（超額收益）比二（錯過收益）。
From a valuation perspective, the iEdge S-Reit Index is trading at a price-to-book ratio of 0.85 times, and as highlighted last month, the sector is trading at a discount of almost 20 per cent against its longer-term average.
從估值的角度來看，iEdge S-Reit指數的交易價格與賬面比率爲0.85倍，正如上個月所強調的那樣，該行業的交易價格較長期平均水平折扣了近20％。
Retail investors have also been seen to be opportunistic, with over S$760 million in net buy activities in the first four months of this year, compared to S$150 million to S$200 million for the same periods in 2022 and 2023. Inflows to S-Reit ETFs hit a 19-month high in April.
散戶投資者也被認爲是機會主義者，今年前四個月的淨買入活動超過7.6億新元，而2022年和2023年同期的淨買入活動爲1.5億至2億新元。4月，S-Reit ETF的流入量創下19個月新高。
Despite a challenging environment, S-Reits continue to stride ahead thus far. Hospitality S-Reits have recorded on average 20 per cent year-on-year growth in distributions per unit on the back of the tourism recovery.
儘管環境充滿挑戰，但迄今爲止，S-Reits繼續向前邁進。在旅遊業復甦的背景下，酒店業S-Reits的單位分配額平均同比增長20％。
Keppel Reit, Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust, Digital Core Reit, Mapletree Logistics Trust, CapitaLand India Trust, and Daiwa House Logistics Trust have also announced acquisition plans this year thus far.
到目前爲止，吉寶房地產投資信託、弗雷澤物流與商業信託、數字核心房地產投資信託、豐樹物流信託、凱德印度信託和大和房屋物流信託基金也宣佈了今年迄今爲止的收購計劃。
The latest Straits Times Index (STI) review also saw Frasers Centrepoint Trust join the index, bringing the total number of S-Reits in the STI to seven with a combined weightage of 12.5 per cent.
最新的《海峽時報》指數（STI）審查還顯示，弗雷澤Centrepoint Trust也加入了該指數，使STI中的S-REITS總數達到七個，總權重爲12.5％。
Understandably, markets and investors will still look towards the Fed's decision on interest rates over the next few months.
可以理解的是，市場和投資者仍將關注聯儲局未來幾個月的利率決定。
Nareit is cautiously optimistic that recovery could begin in 2025; however the rally in global Reits seen last quarter could well signal that the end of the rate-hike cycle will herald a period of Reit outperformance.
納雷特對復甦可能在2025年開始持謹慎樂觀態度；但是，上個季度全球房地產投資信託基金的上漲很可能預示着加息週期的結束將預示着房地產投資信託基金的表現跑贏大盤的時期。
And for those that missed it, last weekend saw the largest Reit event in Singapore – the Reit Symposium 2024, an annual physical event organised by InvestingNote, ShareInvestor and REITAS. Given the interest and sentiment in the sector's outlook, it is no wonder the event was attended by over 1,800 registrants.
對於那些錯過的人來說，上週末迎來了新加坡最大的房地產投資信託基金活動——2024年房地產投資信託基金研討會，這是由InvestingNote、ShareInvestor和REITAS組織的年度實體活動。鑑於對該行業前景的興趣和情緒，難怪有1,800多名註冊者參加了該活動。
Source: SGX Research S-REITs & Property Trusts Chartbook.
資料來源：新加坡證券交易所研究S-REITs和房地產信託基金圖表。
REIT Watch is a regular column on The Business Times, read the original version.
房地產投資信託基金觀察是《商業時報》的定期專欄文章， 讀 原始版本。
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