FUTU Morning Post

Futu Morning Post | The four major voting committees of the Federal Reserve are in full swing: interest rates should remain high for a longer period of time; Ali has risen more than 7%. Previously, “Air Force” Citron said it is expected to rise above $100

Futu News · May 17 08:14

热点要闻

美联储四大票委齐放鹰：利率应在更长时间内保持高位

数位美联储官员同日表示，随着决策者等待更多通胀正在缓解的证据，美联储应在更长时间内保持较高的借贷成本，这表明他们并不急于降息。美联储“三把手”威廉姆斯最新表示，未看到目前有收紧政策的需要，乐见通胀放缓，但不足以促成近期降息；亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克认为，4月通胀取得进展，但未形成趋势，年底前降息可能是合适的；里士满联储主席巴尔金、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特均认为，需要在更长的时间内将利率维持在高位，以实现通胀目标。

知名对冲基金高管警告：美联储今年不太可能降息

Rokos Capital Management全球市场主管理查德·唐表示，通胀走势已经变得非常难以预测，尤其是在今年晚些时候总统大选的背景下。他周四在接受采访时表示：“美联储今年不太可能降息。我们即将迎来一场非常重要的总统选举，这确实会对货币政策产生影响。因此，在考虑这一切之后，美联储到底是降息还是加息的概率几乎都是五五开。”

市场瞩目的美国CPI数据竟被提前30分钟发布，白宫回应

美国劳工统计局（BLS）在最新声明中称，在4月份CPI和实际收益数据正式发布前，该局“不慎将一些文件提前约30分钟上传到网站”。而在数据正式公布前的半个小时，市场没有出现剧烈波动，这表明提前发布没有引起投资者的注意。分析认为，如果投资者意识到数据提前发布，30分钟的时间仍然足够他们做出反应。美国白宫新闻发言人Jean-Pierre表示，BLS提前发布CPI数据是“无心之举”，相信能够处置好数据外泄问题。

商品指数创年内新高，粘性通胀成为美联储噩梦

虽然美国4月CPI增幅放缓让美联储今年降息的可能性大增，但与此同时，大宗商品价格却达到了一年来的最高水平，粘性通胀可能成为美联储的噩梦。数据显示，跟踪24种能源、金属和农业合约彭博大宗商品现货指数今年以来已经上涨8%。分析认为，这对美联储主席鲍威尔抗击通货膨胀的努力构成了严重威胁。

美股复盘

阿里暴涨7%助金龙逆市走强，道指首破4万点后回落收低

美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌0.1%，盘中首次突破40000点，纳指跌0.26%，标普500指数跌0.21%。

WSB热门概念股继续回落，游戏驿站跌超30%，AMC院线跌超15%。

明星科技股涨跌不一，英特尔涨超2%，苹果、谷歌、特斯拉微涨；亚马逊、Meta跌超1%，微软、英伟达微跌。

热门中概股普涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨2.49%。爱奇艺涨超12%，阿里巴巴涨超7%，网易涨超5%，小鹏汽车涨超3%，哔哩哔哩涨超2%，京东、百度、拼多多涨超1%，腾讯音乐小幅上涨。

阿里收涨超7%，昔日“空军”先锋香橼预计其有望涨穿100美元

被昔日因做空中概股闻名的机构香橼大力看好后，$阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$股价大涨。香橼称，阿里巴巴正获得动能，股价有望涨穿100美元，在中国将效仿微软和亚马逊成功，投资者将认识到阿里的AI云前景和战略投资。香橼还指出，在中国的大语言模型（LLM）领域，阿里的模型通义千问是佼佼者。截至收盘，阿里巴巴大涨超7%。

这就是“量化之王”！文艺复兴科技Q1就已埋伏两大模因股

13F文件显示，“量化之王”詹姆斯·西蒙斯旗下文艺复兴科技一季度买入了近382万股$AMC院线 (AMC.US)$，截至季末持股数达到了870万股。另外，该基金还在Q1建仓买入了超100万股的$游戏驿站 (GME.US)$。在本周，这两只“模因股”成为了美国股市多空博弈的主要战场之一。虽然周三和周四明显回落，但两只股票本周仍累涨近60%。

“索罗斯战友”到底猛砍了多少英伟达？答案来了：至少70%！

13F文件显示，前索罗斯副手Druckenmiller的家族办公室在今年第一季度出售了超过44.1万股的$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$，将其英伟达持仓减少至仅17.6万股，这意味着仅截至一季度末，削减比例就超过七成，剩余英伟达持股的价值约为1.58亿美元。分析称，13F文件具有时滞性，仅为截至一季度末，从Druckenmiller上周的表态来看，他可能不会在二季度增加其英伟达的持仓，相反地，完全有可能在进入二季度进一步削减英伟达的持仓。

Reddit盘后大涨超11%，与OpenAI构建合作伙伴关系

OpenAI宣布与社交网络$Reddit (RDDT.US)$建立合作伙伴关系，将把后者的内容引入聊天机器人ChatGPT和其他产品中，并允许Reddit在其在线社区中添加新的人工智能功能。截至发稿，Reddit盘后大涨超11%。

沃尔玛涨近7%，Q1财报超预期，全年业绩预期上调

$沃尔玛 (WMT.US)$Q1营收1615.1亿美元，同比增长6%，超出市场预期的1595.8亿美元；调整后的每股收益为60美分，也高于分析师预期的53美分。业绩指引方面，沃尔玛预计全年的调整后每股收益将达到或略超之前预计的2.23美元到2.37美元，全年收入增长预期在3%至4%之间。截至收盘，沃尔玛涨近7%。

美股成交额TOP20

相关阅读：成交额TOP20 | 阿里涨超7%，香橼称阿里股价有望升破100美元

港市前瞻

北水大幅加仓中国银行超22亿港元，买入腾讯超11亿港元

5月16日（周四），南下资金净买入港股39.73亿港元。

$中国银行 (03988.HK)$、$腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$、$建设银行 (00939.HK)$分别获净买入22.23亿港元、11.39亿港元、5.69亿港元；

$盈富基金 (02800.HK)$、$恒生中国企业 (02828.HK)$、$美团-W (03690.HK)$分别遭净卖出17.74亿港元、5.33亿港元、5.19亿港元。

京东Q1营收2600亿元，同比增长7%

$京东集团-SW (09618.HK)$Q1营收2600亿元，同比增长7%；经调整净利润为89亿元，去年同期为76亿元；调整后每ADS收益5.65元，去年同期为4.76元。分业务来看，京东零售Q1实现收入2268.35亿元，去年同期为2123.58亿元；京东物流收入为421.37亿元，去年同期为367.28亿元；新业务收入为48.70亿元，去年同期为60.26亿元。

百度Q1净利润同比增长22%，AI继续推动云收入增长

$百度集团-SW (09888.HK)$Q1营收315.13亿人民币，同比增长1%，市场预估314.3亿元人民币；归属于公司的经调整净利润为70.11亿人民币，同比增长22%。非在线营销收入为人民币68亿元，同比增长6%，主要由智能云业务带动。百度表示对人工智能技术栈的端到端优化，继续推动了本季度智能云收入的增长。

今日关注

关键词：中国社会消费品零售总额年率、国新办发布会、FOMC票委讲话

周五，经济数据方面，中国社会消费品零售总额年率、规模以上工业增加值年率，欧元区CPI年率以及美国谘商会领先指标月率数据将公布。

财经事件方面，国新办就国民经济运行情况举行新闻发布会，国家统计局公布70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告。

财报方面，$华住 (HTHT.US)$、$零跑汽车 (09863.HK)$将公布业绩。

新股方面，$泓盈城市服务 (02529.HK)$将于本日上市。

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牛牛晨读：

如开始就成功，就不要另觅他途。
——沃伦·巴菲特

编辑/tolk

Hot news

The four major voting committees of the Federal Reserve are in unison: interest rates should remain high for a longer period of time

Several Federal Reserve officials said on the same day that as policymakers wait for more evidence that inflation is easing, the Federal Reserve should keep borrowing costs high for a longer period of time, which shows that they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates. The Federal Reserve's “Big Three” Williams recently stated that he has not seen the need to tighten policies at present; he is happy to see a slowdown in inflation, but it is not enough to cause interest rate cuts in the near future; Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic believes that inflation progressed in April but has not formed a trend, so it may be appropriate to cut interest rates before the end of the year; Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin and Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Meister all believe that interest rates need to be kept high for a longer period of time to achieve the inflation target.

Well-known hedge fund executives warn that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates this year

Richard Tang, head of global markets at Rokos Capital Management, said that the trend of inflation has become very difficult to predict, especially in the context of the presidential election later this year. In an interview on Thursday, he said, “The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates this year. We are about to have a very important presidential election, which will indeed have an impact on monetary policy. Therefore, after considering all of this, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates or raise interest rates is almost always 5 to 5.”

The US CPI data that attracted the market's attention was actually released 30 minutes early, and the White House responded

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said in its latest statement that before the April CPI and actual earnings data were officially released, the bureau “accidentally uploaded some documents to the website about 30 minutes in advance.” However, half an hour before the data was officially released, there were no sharp fluctuations in the market, which indicates that the early release did not attract investors' attention. Analysts believe that if investors are aware that the data is being released ahead of time, 30 minutes will still be enough time for them to respond. US White House press spokesman Jean-Pierre said that the early release of CPI data by BLS was a “careless move” and believes it can deal with the data leak.

The commodity index hit a new high during the year, and sticky inflation became a nightmare for the Federal Reserve

Although the slowdown in the US CPI increase in April greatly increased the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates this year, at the same time, commodity prices have reached their highest level in a year, and sticky inflation may become a nightmare for the Fed. The data shows that the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks 24 energy, metals and agricultural contracts, has risen 8% since this year. Analysts believe this poses a serious threat to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's efforts to fight inflation.

Resumption of US stock trading

Ali surged 7% to help Jinlong strengthen against the market. The Dow fell back to a low level after breaking 40,000 points for the first time

The three major US stock indices collectively closed down. The Dow fell 0.1%, breaking through 40,000 points for the first time in the intraday period, the NASDAQ fell 0.26%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.21%.

WSB's popular concept stocks continued to fall, with Game Station falling more than 30% and AMC cinemas falling by more than 15%.

Star technology stocks had mixed ups and downs. Intel rose more than 2%; Apple, Google, and Tesla rose slightly; Amazon and Meta fell more than 1%, and Microsoft and Nvidia fell slightly.

Popular Chinese securities generally rose, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 2.49%. iQiyi rose more than 12%, Alibaba rose more than 7%, NetEase rose more than 5%, Xiaopeng Motor rose more than 3%, Bilibili rose more than 2%, JD, Baidu, and Pinduoduo rose more than 1%, and Tencent Music rose slightly.

Ali closed up more than 7%, and the former “Air Force” pioneer Citron is expected to rise above $100

After being strongly favored by Citron, an agency famous for doing aerial stock exchanges in the past,$Alibaba (BABA.US)$Stock prices have soared. Citron said that Alibaba is gaining momentum, and its stock price is expected to rise above $100. It will follow the success of Microsoft and Amazon in China, and investors will recognize Ali's AI cloud prospects and strategic investments. Citron also pointed out that in the field of big language models (LLM) in China, Ali's model is a leader. By the close, Alibaba surged more than 7%.

This is the “king of quantification”! Renaissance Tech has already ambush two major meme stocks in Q1

According to 13F documents, the “king of quantification” James Simmons bought nearly 3.82 million shares in the first quarter under the umbrella of Renaissance Technology$AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$By the end of the quarter, the number of shares held had reached 8.7 million shares. In addition, the fund also opened a position in Q1 and bought more than 1 million shares$GameStop (GME.US)$. This week, these two “meme stocks” became one of the main battlefields in the US stock market's long and short game. Despite significant declines on Wednesday and Thursday, the two stocks continued to rise nearly 60% this week.

How many Nvidias did the “Comrade of Soros” actually slash? Here's the answer: at least 70%!

According to 13F documents, the family office of former Soros deputy Druckenmiller sold more than 441,000 shares in the first quarter of this year$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It reduced its Nvidia holdings to only 176,000 shares, which meant that by the end of the first quarter alone, the reduction ratio was over 70%, and the value of the remaining Nvidia holdings was about US$158 million. According to the analysis, the 13F file has a time lag. It is only up to the end of the first quarter. Judging from Druckenmiller's statement last week, he probably won't increase his Nvidia holdings in the second quarter; on the contrary, it is entirely possible that Nvidia's holdings will be further reduced in the second quarter.

Reddit surged more than 11% after the market to form a partnership with OpenAI

OpenAI announces collaboration with social networks$Reddit (RDDT.US)$The partnership will bring the latter's content to the chatbot ChatGPT and other products, and allow Reddit to add new artificial intelligence features to its online community. As of press time, Reddit surged more than 11% after the market.

Walmart rose nearly 7%, Q1 earnings exceeded expectations, and full-year performance expectations were raised

$Walmart (WMT.US)$Q1 revenue was US$161.51 billion, up 6% year over year, exceeding market expectations of US$159.58 billion; adjusted earnings per share were 60 cents, which was also higher than analysts' expectations of 53 cents. In terms of performance guidance, Walmart expects adjusted earnings per share for the whole year to meet or slightly exceed the previous forecast of $2.23 to $2.37, and the annual revenue growth forecast is between 3% and 4%. By the close, Walmart was up nearly 7%.

Top 20 US stock turnover

Hong Kong Market Outlook

Beishui drastically increased its bank position by more than HK$2.2 billion and bought Tencent by more than HK$1.1 billion

On May 16 (Thursday), Southbound made a net purchase of HK$3,973 billion in Hong Kong stocks.

$BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK)$,$TENCENT (00700.HK)$,$CCB (00939.HK)$Received net purchases of HK$2,223 million, HK$1,139 million and HK$569 million respectively;

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF (02828.HK)$,$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$Net sales were HK$1,774 million, HK$533 million and HK$519 million respectively.

JD's Q1 revenue was 260 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year

$JD-SW (09618.HK)$Q1 revenue was 260 billion yuan, up 7% year on year; adjusted net profit was 8.9 billion yuan, compared to 7.6 billion yuan in the same period last year; adjusted revenue per ADS was 5.65 yuan, compared to 4.76 yuan for the same period last year. By business, JD retail Q1 achieved revenue of 226.835 billion yuan, compared to 212.358 billion yuan in the same period last year; JD logistics revenue was 42.137 billion yuan, compared to 36.728 billion yuan in the same period last year; and revenue from new business was 4.870 billion yuan, compared to 6.026 billion yuan in the same period last year.

Baidu's Q1 net profit increased 22% year over year, and AI continues to drive cloud revenue growth

$BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$Q1 revenue was RMB 31,513 billion, up 1% year on year. The market estimated RMB 31.43 billion; adjusted net profit attributable to the company was RMB 7.011 billion, up 22% year on year. Non-online marketing revenue was RMB 6.8 billion, up 6% year over year, mainly driven by the smart cloud business. Baidu said that end-to-end optimization of the artificial intelligence technology stack continued to drive the growth of smart cloud revenue this quarter.

Today's attention

Keywords: annual rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in China, press conference of the State Information Office, FOMC voting committee speech

On Friday, in terms of economic data, the annual rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in China, the annual value added rate of industries above scale, the annual rate of CPI in the Eurozone, and the monthly rate of the leading indicators of the American Chamber of Commerce will be released.

In terms of financial events, the State Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy, and the National Bureau of Statistics published monthly reports on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities.

In terms of financial reports,$H World Group (HTHT.US)$,$LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)$Results will be announced.

In terms of new shares,$HOLLWIN URBAN (02529.HK)$It will be available today.

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If you succeed in the beginning, don't look elsewhere.
—Warren Buffett

editor/tolk

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