ZTO EXPRESS(2057.HK):1Q24 CORE EARNINGS BEAT ESTIMATES; SHIFTED TO PROFITABLE GROWTH STRATEGY
ZTO EXPRESS(2057.HK):1Q24 CORE EARNINGS BEAT ESTIMATES; SHIFTED TO PROFITABLE GROWTH STRATEGY
ZTO Express (ZTO) shifted the strategic focus to profitable growth in 1Q24, enabling it to deliver core net profit of RMB1.9bn (+23% YoY), representing 19% of our full-year forecast (run rate in 1Q23: 17.6%), which is better than our expectation. Looking forward, ZTO maintains the 15-18% parcel volume growth target in 2024E (same as previous guidance), despite a higher industry growth forecast of 15-20% by the Company (previously 10%). We like ZTO's decisive change to profitable growth strategy. We continue to expect ZTO to generate free cash flow over the coming years to support its semi-annual dividend and buyback programs. We have left our earnings forecast unchanged. Our TP for ZTO US/2057 HK is unchanged at US$38.50/HK$303, based on 24x 2024E P/E, equivalent to the historical average. Maintain BUY.
中通快遞（ZTO）在24年第一季度將戰略重點轉移到盈利增長上，使其核心淨利潤達到19億元人民幣（同比增長23％），佔我們全年預測的19％（23年第一季度的運行率：17.6％），好於我們的預期。展望未來，儘管中通的行業增長預測爲15-20％（此前爲10％），但該公司的包裹量增長目標仍在2024E保持15-18％（與先前的預期相同）。我們喜歡中通對盈利增長戰略的決定性改變。我們仍然預計，中通將在未來幾年產生自由現金流，以支持其半年度分紅和回購計劃。我們的收益預測保持不變。根據相當於歷史平均水平的24倍2024年市盈率，我們對中通美國/2057 HK的目標持平，爲38.50美元/303港元。維持買入。
Key highlights in 1Q24 results:
24 年第一季度業績的主要亮點：
Core net profit grew 23% YoY. Reported net income in 1Q24 dropped 15% YoY to RMB1.4bn, due to an impairment of RMB478mn as the tender offer for Cainiao's shares was below ZTO's carrying amount. Excluding the one- off items, the adjusted net profit grew 23% YoY to RMB1.9bn. The decent earnings growth was driven by (1) 10% YoY revenue growth, (2) 2.1ppt YoY gross margin expansion to 30.1%, and (3) a 1.6x YoY increase in net finance income.
核心淨利潤同比增長23％。24年第一季度公佈的淨收益同比下降15％，至14億元人民幣，這是由於菜鳥股票的要約低於中通的賬面金額，減值了人民幣4.78億元。不包括一次性項目，調整後的淨利潤同比增長23％，達到19億元人民幣。可觀的收益增長是由以下因素推動的：（1）10％的收入同比增長，（2）毛利率同比增長2.1個百分點至30.1％，以及（3）淨財務收入同比增長1.6倍。
Parcel volume +14% YoY to 7.2bn units, 11ppt below the industry (+25% YoY). This is the first time since early 2021 that ZTO has delivered below-industry growth as ZTO shifted its focus to quality growth. Market share in 1Q24 dropped 4.1ppt YoY to 19.3%.
包裹量同比增長14％至72億件，比行業低11個百分點（同比增長25％）。這是中通自2021年初以來首次實現低於行業的增長，因爲中通將重點轉移到質量增長上。24年第一季度的市場份額同比下降4.1個百分點至19.3％。
ASP -3% YoY, most resilient among major peers. Parcel delivery ASP in 1Q24 only dropped RMB0.04/unit YoY to RMB1.36/unit. The decrease was much less than that of YTO (-9%), STO (-13%) and Yunda (-24%).
ASP 同比下降3％，在主要同行中最具彈性。24年第一季度包裹配送的ASP僅同比下降了0.04元人民幣至每單位1.36元人民幣。下降幅度遠小於圓通（-9％）、STO（-13％）和運達（-24％）的跌幅。
Unit cost -5% YoY to RMB0.94/parcel. Unit cost of transportation decreased RMB0.04 (or -7% YoY) to RMB0.46/unit, helped by economies of scale and improved load rate. Unit cost of sorting hubs decreased 5% YoY to RMB0.30/unit, due to the continued standardization in operating procedures and an increase in automation level.
單位成本同比下降5％，至人民幣0.94元/包裹。受規模經濟和裝載率提高的推動，單位運輸成本下降了人民幣0.04元（同比下降7％），至每單位0.4元人民幣。由於操作程序的持續標準化和自動化水平的提高，分揀中心的單位成本同比下降了5％，至人民幣0.30元。
Unit gross margin +4% YoY to RMB0.42/parcel. Gross margin expanded 2.1ppt YoY to 30.1%.
單位毛利率同比增長4％，至人民幣0.42元/包裹。毛利率同比增長2.1個百分點至30.1％。
Major risk factors: (1) a prolonged price war; (2) a slowdown in online retail sales; and (3) increases in fuel costs.
主要風險因素：（1）長期的價格戰；（2）在線零售銷售放緩；（3）燃料成本上漲。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。