3 points to pay attention to in the aftermath - even though semiconductor stocks take the lead, the appreciation of the yen is heavy

Fisco Japan ·  May 16 11:16

I would like to pay attention to the following 3 points in the late-day transaction on the 16th.

・The Nikkei Average continued to rise for 3 days, and even though semiconductor stocks led the way, the appreciation of the yen was heavy

・The dollar and yen were weak and split by 154 yen due to continued sales

・East Elec <8035> is the top contributor to price increases, and Recruit HD <6098> is in the same 2nd place

■The Nikkei Average continued to rise for 3 days, and even though semiconductor stocks led the way, the appreciation of the yen was heavy

The Nikkei Average continued to rise for 3 days. The front-end transaction was closed at 38669.57 yen (estimated turnover 1.19 billion shares), which was 283.84 yen higher (+ 0.74%) compared to the previous day.

The US stock market continued to rise on the 15th. The Dow average closed at 39908.00 dollars, which was 349.89 dollars higher (+ 0.88%), the NASDAQ was 231.21 points higher (+ 1.40%) at 16742.39, and the S&P 500 closed at 5308.15, which was 61.47 points higher (+ 1.17%). Buying, which was expected to cut interest rates by the end of the year in response to a slowdown in consumer price index (CPI) growth in April, was rekindled, and then rose. It was bought mainly by high-tech companies against the backdrop of a drastic drop in long-term interest rates, and remained steady throughout the day. At the end of the game, the increase widened, and the Dow and NASDAQ hit high prices and ended.

In response to the rise in US stocks, the Tokyo market also began trading with a buying advantage. The Nikkei Average expanded the increase to 38897.53 yen in response to the rise in valuable semiconductor stocks, but like the day before, the increase became heavy around 39,000 yen and the increase narrowed. When the exchange rate was in the 153 yen range compared to the day before, the yen appreciated by just over 2 yen and the depreciation of the dollar progressed, and automobile-related matters such as Toyota's own (7203) declined. Since there were not even bank stocks with large market capitalization, TOPIX was negative compared to the previous day.

Among stocks adopted by the Nikkei Average, financial results were viewed as material, and Recruit HD <6098> and Credit Saison <8253> became the buying advantage, and semiconductor stocks such as Tokyo Electron <8035>, Advantest <6857>, DISCO <6146>, and Screen HD <7735> also rose. In addition, TDK <6762>, Ebara Seisakusho <6361>, Terumo <4543>, and Eisai <4523> were bought.

Meanwhile, the Japanese paper <3863> depreciated drastically because the operating profit forecast for the current fiscal year reached market consensus, and Nissin Flour G <2002> and Mitsubishi UFJ <8306> were also sold because financial results were disgusted. Additionally, Sumitomo Pharma (4506), Sumitomo Chemical (4005), Mazda (7261), Konica Minolta (4902), and Oji Holdings (3861) declined.

By industry, while other products, services, electrical equipment, other financial industries, precision instruments, etc. rose, pulp and paper, transportation equipment, steel, banking, petroleum and coal products, etc. declined.

About 65% of stocks in the prime market fall, but the Nikkei Average is in a distorted position to rise. The previous Nikkei average surpassed both the 25-day moving average and the 75-day moving average. I would like to look forward to a development where the rebound trend will intensify since it has surpassed the current upper price resistance line, but there is little material to actively buy Japanese stocks. It is assumed that the situation with little sense of direction will continue until the financial results of semiconductor giant NVIDIA, which are scheduled for 5/22 next week, are passed. The upper price of the Nikkei Average is likely to continue to be heavy in the future.

■The dollar and yen are soft and split by 154 yen due to continued sales

The dollar and yen were in a soft position in the Tokyo market on the morning of the 16th, and when they cut below 154 yen, the price temporarily dropped to 153 yen 60 yen. The depreciation of US interest rates and the depreciation of the dollar continued in response to sluggish economic indicators such as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) the day before. Meanwhile, the dollar was bought back due to a sense of undervaluation, and it returned to around 154 yen.

The trading range up to this point is 153 yen 60 yen to 154 yen 86 sen for the dollar and yen, 167 yen 33 yen to 168 yen 53 sen for the euro and yen, and 1.0880 to 1.0894 dollars for the euro dollar.

■Backstage check stocks

・4 stocks, such as Sumiseki Holdings <1514> and Aso Fromcleat <1730>, etc., are stop-high

*Includes temporary stop height (sign value)

・East Elec <8035> is the top contributor to price increases, and Recruit HD <6098> is in the same 2nd place

■Economic indicators and statements from key figures

[Economic indicators]

・Japan/January-March GDP 1st Bulletin: -2.0% YoY compared to previous fiscal year (forecast: -1.2%, October-December period: 0.0% ← +0.4%)

・Australia · April unemployment rate: 4.1% (forecast: 3.9%, March: 3.9% ← 3.8%)

・Increase or decrease in the number of people employed in Australia in April: +38,500 (forecast: +23,700, March: -0.66 million)

[Remarks by VIPs]

・Chicago Fed President Coolsby

“Good inflation statistics need to continue for several months to be satisfied”

・Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi

“The economy is expected to continue to recover moderately (in response to domestic GDP)”

“It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of boosting domestic prices due to asset prices and exchange rate fluctuations”


・ 13:30 March industrial production revised value (preliminary value: +3.8% compared to the previous month)


・European Central Bank (ECB) Financial Stability Report

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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