Stock Market Rally For 2024 Has Peaked, Goldman Sachs Forecasts 'Flat Return From Now Till The End Of The Year'
Stock Market Rally For 2024 Has Peaked, Goldman Sachs Forecasts 'Flat Return From Now Till The End Of The Year'
The stock market rally for 2024 has reached its peak, according to Goldman Sachs. The firm's chief U.S. equity strategist, David Kostin, has predicted a flat return for the S&P 500 for the remainder of the year.
高盛表示，2024年的股市涨势已达到顶峰。该公司首席美国股票策略师戴维·科斯汀曾预测，标准普尔500指数在今年剩余时间内的回报率将持平。
What Happened: Kostin mentioned in an interview with Bloomberg TV that there is no economic, valuation, or earnings rationale for additional upside. The S&P 500 has already surpassed Goldman's year-end target of 5,200.
发生了什么：科斯汀在接受彭博电视采访时提到，没有经济、估值或盈利理由来增加上行空间。标准普尔500指数已经超过了高盛设定的5,200的年终目标。
This suggests "a flat return from now till the end of the year," Kostin said, leaving open the possibility for a change in forecast if variables change.
科斯汀说，这表明 “从现在起到年底的回报率持平”，如果变量发生变化，预测有可能发生变化。
Goldman's team currently projects real GDP growth of just under 3% and earnings growth of about 8%. However, valuations are currently high and unlikely to boost stocks further.
高盛的团队目前预计实际GDP增长将略低于3％，收益增长约8％。但是，目前估值很高，不太可能进一步提振股票。
"They're at an index level basis almost 21 times earnings. So the probability of a multiple expansion, while possible, is less probable," Kostin said. "The idea of earnings being much greater than we're assuming we think is pretty low."
“它们处于指数水平，几乎是收益的21倍。因此，多次扩张的可能性虽然可能，但可能性较小。” 科斯汀说。“收益比我们想象的要高得多的想法相当低。”
Despite this, Kostin hasn't entirely dismissed the possibility of a bullish turnaround. He noted that if the Federal Reserve has to cut interest rates more dramatically than assumed, this could lead to more upside. However, Goldman's base case still considers two cuts as the most likely scenario for this year.
尽管如此，科斯汀并没有完全否认看涨转机的可能性。他指出，如果美联储必须比想象的更大幅度地降息，这可能会带来更大的上行空间。但是，高盛的基本案例仍然认为两次削减是今年最有可能的情况。
Why It Matters: Recently, the stock market showed a bullish signal, with the S&P 500 and the NYSE advance-decline lines hitting new all-time highs. This was seen as a leading indicator by technical analysts. However, Kostin's recent comments suggest that this bullish trend may not continue.
为何重要：最近，股市显示出看涨信号，标准普尔500指数和纽约证券交易所涨跌线创下历史新高。这被技术分析师视为领先指标。但是，科斯汀最近的评论表明，这种看涨趋势可能不会持续下去。
Meanwhile, Mohamed El-Erian, the Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, has suggested that the latest inflation data could prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to consider an earlier interest rate cut, potentially boosting bond and equity prices. This could be a factor in the stock market's future performance.
同时，安联首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃里安表示，最新的通胀数据可能会促使美联储考虑提前降息，这可能会提振债券和股票价格。这可能是影响股市未来表现的一个因素。
Additionally, investment strategist Ed Yardeni has warned that the Fed's potential monetary easing through interest rate cuts could lead to a stock market melt-up, potentially propelling the S&P 500 to record highs by the year's end.
此外，投资策略师埃德·亚尔德尼警告说，美联储可能通过降息来放松货币政策，可能导致股市崩溃，有可能推动标准普尔500指数在年底前创下历史新高。
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译文内容由第三方软件翻译。