According to data from the International Manganese Industry Association, global manganese ore production in 2023 was 6.03 million tons, equivalent to 21.24 million tons of manganese metal, up 2%/1% year-on-year respectively.

South Africa, Gabon, and Australia are the world's major producers of manganese ore, and the total share of the three countries' production will reach 72% (metallurgical caliber) in 2023.

China's manganese resource reserves rank fourth in the world, but the grade of manganese ore in China is low, and production has declined significantly in recent years. In 2023, China's manganese ore production was 6.71 million tons, accounting for only 3% of manganese metal output.

In recent years, China's dependence on manganese ore imports has remained above 90%. The three countries of South Africa, Australia and Gabon account for more than 80% of imported manganese ore, and the import concentration is high.

According to Mysteel data, as of May 10, domestic manganese ore port stocks were 4.881 million tons, which is at a low level since 2020. Australian manganese ore stocks at Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port were 577,000 tons/344,000 tons, respectively, down 32%/26% from the high levels at the end of March.

Considering the subsequent sharp decline in Australian manganese ore imports, a drop in port inventories to a very low level may stimulate a sharp rise in manganese ore prices.

According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the South32 GEMCO mine in Australia, the world's largest manganese ore producer, was completely interrupted due to the hurricane. We expect the supply of manganese ore to be reduced by about 10% in 2024, corresponding to a 350,000 ton reduction in domestic manganese ore imports per month.

China is more than 90% dependent on manganese ore imports, and current port manganese ore stocks are at a low level.

CITIC Securities Research predicts that this disturbance will spur a sharp rise in manganese ore prices, or is expected to hit the 2016 price highs, and that the prices of silicon-manganese and electrolyzed manganese products will also rise.

Companies related to manganese ore price increases:

Southern Manganese (01091): Nanfang Manganese is a large-scale enterprise group for the production and development of manganese products integrating mining, selection and metallurgy. It is headquartered in Nanning, Guangxi. It is an important supplier of manganese products in the world, and is the main unit for drafting and approving quality standards for eight countries and industries of manganese products including the electrolytic manganese metal. Main products include electrolytic manganese, electrolytic manganese dioxide, manganese sulfate, and nickel cobalt lithium manganate ternary materials. According to the 2023 interim results, the profit attributable to owners of the parent company in the first half of the year was HK$453 million, an increase of 1955% over the previous year. The increase in revenue was mainly due to an increase in the average selling price of electrolytic manganese products and electrolytic manganese dioxide; an increase in sales from boron-added ore; and an increase in sales revenue from the trading business.