TENCENT(700.HK):QUALITY GROWTH STRATEGY UNDERPINS STRONG EARNINGS GROWTH
TENCENT(700.HK):QUALITY GROWTH STRATEGY UNDERPINS STRONG EARNINGS GROWTH
Tencent announced 1Q24 results: total revenue increased by 6% YoY to RMB159.5bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; non-IFRS net income grew by 54% YoY to RMB50.3bn, 17/16% ahead of our/consensus estimate, as Tencent's quality growth strategy drove better-than-expected GPM expansion (+7.1ppt YoY). We expect the GPM expansion to continue in the rest of FY24, driven by the increased contribution from high-margin revenue streams such as Video Accounts (VA) and Mini Games. The improving profitability should in turn support Tencent's shareholder return. We raise FY24-26E earnings forecast by 6-8% and now forecast a non-IFRS net income CAGR of 15% over FY24-26E. We lift our SOTP- derived TP to HK$480.0 (previous: HK$445.0). Maintain BUY.
腾讯公布了24年第一季度业绩：总收入同比增长6％，至1595亿元人民币，符合我们/共识的估计；非国际财务报告准则净收入同比增长54％至人民币50.3亿元，比我们的共识估计高出17/ 16％，原因是腾讯的质量增长战略推动了好于预期的GPM扩张（同比增长7.1ppt）。我们预计，在视频账户（VA）和迷你游戏等高利润收入来源的贡献增加的推动下，GPM的扩张将在24财年的剩余时间内继续。盈利能力的提高反过来应支持腾讯的股东回报。我们将FY24-26E 的收益预期提高了6-8％，现在预计非国际财务报告准则的净收入复合年增长率将比 FY24-26E 提高15％。我们将止盈止损目标上调至480.0港元（先前：445.0港元）。维持买入。
Games gross receipts recovered YoY in 1Q24. Games revenue was down 1% YoY to RMB48.1bn in 1Q24, in line with consensus estimate. Domestic games revenue dropped by 2% YoY to RMB34.5bn in 1Q24 due to a slowing monetization pace in 2H23. Nonetheless, domestic games gross receipts returned to positive YoY growth of 3% in 1Q24, with gross receipts of HoK and Peacekeeper Elite recovering YoY in Mar 2024. International games revenue was up 3% YoY to RMB13.6bn in 1Q24; and gross receipts registered solid growth of 34% YoY in 1Q24, driven by strong performance of Supercell's games like Brawl Stars. Supported by the gross receipt recovery and new game launch, we are positive on a rebound of games revenue in 2Q24E.
游戏总收入在24年第一季度同比恢复。24年第一季度游戏收入同比下降1％，至481亿元人民币，符合市场普遍预期。由于23年下半年盈利步伐放缓，国内游戏收入在24年第一季度同比下降2％，至345亿元人民币。尽管如此，国内游戏总收入在24年第一季度恢复了3％的正同比增长，2024年3月，HoK和Peacekeeper Elite的总收入同比回升。国际游戏收入在24年第一季度同比增长3％，达到136亿元人民币；受Supercell旗下诸如Brawl Stars等游戏的强劲表现的推动，24年第一季度的总收入同比稳步增长34％。在总收入回升和新游戏发布的支持下，我们对 2Q24E 游戏收入的反弹持乐观态度。
Strong ad revenue growth on enhanced monetization. Online ad revenue grew by 26% YoY to RMB26.5bn in 1Q24 (7% ahead of consensus), mainly on strong growth of high-margin Weixin ad properties (e.g. VA and Weixin Search) and enhancement of ad infrastructure. Ad GPM rose by 13.1ppt YoY to 54.8% in 1Q24. User time spend on VA grew by over 80% YoY in 1Q24 and is now over 2x of Weixin Moments. VA ad revenue was up by over 100% YoY in 1Q24, driven by higher click-through rate and video views. For 2Q24E, management expects the ad revenue growth rate to normalize.
盈利能力增强，广告收入增长强劲。在线广告收入在24年第一季度同比增长26％至265亿元人民币（比市场预期高出7％），这主要是由于高利润微信广告资产（例如VA和微信搜索）的强劲增长以及广告基础设施的增强。广告毛利率在24年第一季度同比增长13.1个百分点至54.8％。24年第一季度，用户在VA上的花费同比增长了80％以上，现在是微信时刻的2倍以上。受点击率和视频观看量上升的推动，弗吉尼亚州的广告收入在24年第一季度同比增长了100％以上。对于 2Q24E，管理层预计广告收入增长率将恢复正常。
Business services revenue maintained solid momentum. Fintech and Business Services (FBS) revenue increased by 7% YoY to RMB52.3bn in 1Q24, 5% below consensus due to a slowdown in fintech business growth. Fintech revenue recorded single-digit YoY growth in 1Q24, mainly due to soft offline consumption. Business services revenue registered a teens YoY growth rate in 1Q24, fuelled by solid growth of cloud revenue and VA e-commerce revenue. Monetization of Tencent's SaaS solutions accelerated, with WeCom/Tencent Meeting revenue tripling/doubling YoY in 1Q24.
商业服务收入保持稳健势头。由于金融科技业务增长放缓，金融科技和商业服务（FBS）收入在24年第一季度同比增长7％，达到523亿元人民币，比预期低5％。金融科技收入在24年第一季度实现了个位数的同比增长，这主要是由于线下消费疲软。受云收入和弗吉尼亚州电子商务收入稳步增长的推动，商业服务收入在24年第一季度实现了十几％的同比增长。腾讯SaaS解决方案的盈利加速，WECOM/腾讯会议的收入在24年第一季度同比增长了三倍/一倍。
Sustainable GPM expansion. Overall GPM rose by 7.1ppt YoY to 52.6% in 1Q24, with VAS/ad/FBS GPM +3.4/13.1/11.1ppt YoY, driven by growth of high-quality revenue streams such as Mini Games and VA. We expect GPM expansion to sustain in the rest of FY24, and forecast non-IFRS net income to grow 27/10% in FY24/25E. Current valuation of 17x FY24E non-IFRS PE (14x FY24E PE if excl. strategic investment) remains attractive in our view. BUY.
可持续的 GPM 扩张。受迷你游戏和虚拟资产等高质量收入来源增长的推动，整体GPM同比增长7.1个百分点至52.6％，其中VAS/AD/FBS的GPM同比增长3.4/13.1/11.1ppt。我们预计，GPM的扩张将在24财年的剩余时间内持续下去，并预计非国际财务报告准则净收入将在24/25E财年增长27/ 10％。我们认为，目前17倍 FY24E 非国际财务报告准则市盈率（不包括战略投资的14倍 FY24E 市盈率）的估值仍然具有吸引力。买。
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