The company released the 2023 annual report and the 2024 quarterly report: for the full year of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 4.62 billion yuan, an increase of 70.34%; realized net profit to mother - 3.7 yuan, an increase of 68.70% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother - 50 billion yuan, an increase of 55.55% year on year. In 23Q4, the company achieved operating income of 1,274 million yuan (+59.86%); net profit to mother of 146 million yuan (+58.23%); net profit not attributable to mother of 149 million yuan (+55.42%). In 24Q1, the company achieved operating income of 1.17 billion yuan (+10.8%); net profit attributable to mother of 100 million yuan (-40.4%); net profit without return to mother of 89.85 million yuan (+13.1%).
Various important medical quality indicators have increased, and the scale of business continues to expand: in 2023, the company provided a total of 2.388,800 outpatient emergency services and 185,800 inpatient services. From a branch perspective, in 2023, Xi'an Gaoxin Hospital had revenue of 1,485 billion yuan (+50.53%), net profit of 69.693 million yuan (+217.23%), 1.1511 million outpatient emergency services (+32.71%), the highest number of outpatient emergency services per day was 4952, and the highest number of patients per day was 1,865. 50 new technologies and new projects were successfully launched during the year; 25 national and provincial restricted technologies were successfully registered. In 2023, the North Campus of Xi'an International Medical Center Hospital was successfully opened. The Central Hospital (including the North Hospital) had annual revenue of 3,043 billion yuan (+87.94%), net profit of 261 million yuan (+66.13%), 1,2376 million outpatient emergency services (+108.07%), and the highest number of outpatient emergency services per day was 5,299, with a maximum of 3,937 patients. The central hospital successfully launched 112 new technology and new businesses; 7 national-level restricted technology filings and 22 provincial restricted technology filings were completed. In terms of international cooperation, Xi'an International Medical Center Hospital and Miaoyou Medical International jointly hosted the first International Medical Summit. By the end of 2023, its medical institutions had become affiliated and teaching hospitals of 6 universities.
Develop special specialties to meet diverse and multi-level medical care needs: The proton therapy center was completely capped in '23, making it the 6th medical institution in the country and the first medical institution in the northwest to be approved for the configuration of a proton radiation therapy system. The assisted reproductive medicine program has been approved to carry out routine in vitro fertilization embryo transfer and intracytoplasmic sperm microinjection technology (IVF/ICSI-ET). It has the capacity to run 40,000 IVF cycles per year, and will become one of the largest reproductive medicine centers in China.
Profit forecast adjustment: Based on the company's existing financial data for the first quarter of 2023 and 2024, we have lowered the company's profit forecast for the next few years because the break-even balance has not been achieved. The revenue side growth rate was adjusted to 25-30% in 2024, and the profit side is expected to achieve break-even.
Profit forecast and rating: We expect the company's net profit to be 1.01, 3.04, and 510 million yuan respectively in 2024-2026, corresponding increases of n.a., 200.9%, and 67.6%. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 133X, 44X, and 26X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Industry competition increases risk, bed usage rate falls short of expectations, single bed output falls short of expectations, risk of medical safety accident disputes.