Overnight, London Metals closed higher, while Copper rose more than 2%
Copper futures climbed to their highest closing price in more than two years on Monday.
Overnight, London Metals closed higher. Lunn Aluminum rose 0.85%, Lunn Nickel rose more than 1%, Lun Copper rose more than 2%, and Lunzinc rose more than 2.4%.
Open Source Securities released a research report saying that looking at 2024H2, risk aversion and credit risk hedging underpin gold prices, and there is still a substantial catalyst for interest rate cuts.
The beginning of a downward cycle in the US dollar index and real interest rates will strongly stimulate the rise in gold prices. According to quantitative model estimates, gold may hit 3,000 US dollars/ounce by the end of 2024.
In terms of industrial metals, according to Open Source Securities estimates, copper prices need to be above 13,000 US dollars to stimulate capital expenditure.
On the supply side, the scarcity of copper concentrate supply compounded by low inventories, and the supply of copper concentrate ushered in the “Pilbara” moment for lithium mines in 2021.
On the demand side, the current round of copper price increases originated overseas. The traditional model for tracking domestic demand may face challenges. The weakening domestic demand is more reflected in the widening price spread at home and abroad. At the same time, in the past, tracking methods were limited to tracking copper manufacturing demand. Considering terminal demand after trade, the proportion of actual overseas demand may be higher than the estimated value of the previous demand model.
Metal copper-related companies:
Luoyang Molybdenum Industry (03993), Zijin Mining (02899), Minmetals Resources (01208), Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358), China Nonferrous Mining (01258)