Supplier Prices Threaten To Impact Inflation Over Turbulent Commodity Markets, Middle East Instability
Supplier Prices Threaten To Impact Inflation Over Turbulent Commodity Markets, Middle East Instability
This week, traders are gearing up for significant market volatility centered around two major inflation reports: the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday.
本週，交易員正在爲圍繞兩份主要通脹報告的重大市場波動做準備：週二的生產者價格指數（PPI）和週三的消費者價格指數（CPI）。
These reports are crucial indicators of inflationary trends in the U.S. economy and could heavily influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions in the coming months.
這些報告是美國經濟通貨膨脹趨勢的關鍵指標，可能會嚴重影響聯儲局未來幾個月的貨幣政策決定。
What to Expect from the April PPI Report
從4月份的PPI報告中可以期待什麼
The PPI measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. A higher-than-expected PPI suggests that inflationary pressures could be building up in the economy, which might prompt the Fed to consider keeping policy high for longer to cool down these pressures.
生產者物價指數衡量國內生產商因其產出而獲得的銷售價格在一段時間內的平均變化。高於預期的PPI表明，經濟中的通貨膨脹壓力可能正在增加，這可能會促使聯儲局考慮在更長的時間內保持高政策以降溫這些壓力。
The PPI report will take on added significance this week, as markets are likely to view it as an indicator that could foreshadow unexpected developments in the subsequent day's CPI data.
本週PPI報告將顯得更加重要，因爲市場可能會將其視爲一個指標，可能預示着隨後一天的消費者價格指數數據將出現意想不到的發展。
Here's what economists are predicting for the April PPI report:
以下是經濟學家對4月份PPI報告的預測：
- The consensus among Wall Street economists is predicting a slight increase in the annual PPI inflation rate from 2.1% in March to 2.2% in April. If these predictions hold true, this would mark the third consecutive rise in the annual PPI rate and the highest level since April 2023.
- On a monthly basis, the PPI is expected to accelerate slightly, growing by 0.3% in April compared to 0.2% in March.
- The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices to provide a clearer measure of inflationary trends, is expected to remain stable at a 2.4% year-on-year rate.
- Monthly, the core PPI is anticipated to show a growth of 0.2%, consistent with the pace seen in March.
- 華爾街經濟學家的共識是，年PPI通脹率將從3月份的2.1％略有上升至4月的2.2％。如果這些預測成立，這將標誌着年PPI率連續第三次上升，也是自2023年4月以來的最高水平。
- 按月計算，PPI預計將略有加速，4月份增長0.3％，而3月份爲0.2％。
- 核心PPI不包括波動的食品和能源價格，以更清楚地衡量通貨膨脹趨勢，預計將保持穩定在2.4％的同比增長率。
- 核心生產者物價指數預計將按月增長0.2％，與3月份的增速一致。
Commodity Prices May Drive A Surge In PPI
大宗商品價格可能推動PPI飆升
Recent trends in commodity prices are likely to influence the broader PPI surge. The most recent Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report highlighted that U.S. manufacturing producers are experiencing rising price pressures.
近期大宗商品價格的走勢可能會影響更廣泛的PPI上漲。美國供應管理協會（ISM）的最新報告強調，美國製造業生產商正面臨不斷上升的價格壓力。
The subindex for Prices Paid climbed to 60.9% in April, up 5.1 percentage points from 55.8% in March, and marking the fourth consecutive month of rising raw material prices after a significant period of declines.
支付價格子指數從3月份的55.8％攀升至4月份的60.9％，上升了5.1個百分點，這標誌着原材料價格在經歷了長時間的下跌之後連續第四個月上漲。
Commodities experienced significant volatility in April, largely due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupting the markets.
大宗商品在4月份經歷了大幅波動，這主要是由於中東的地緣政治緊張局勢擾亂了市場。
For instance, oil prices, as tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO), surged to their highest level in nearly two years on April 12 amid expectations of an imminent Iranian attack on Israel. However, crude later retreated and closed the month relatively unchanged.
例如，美國石油基金（紐約證券交易所代碼：USO）追蹤的油價在4月12日飆升至近兩年來的最高水平，原因是預計伊朗即將對以色列發動襲擊。但是，原油隨後回落，本月收盤相對不變。
Since the start of the year, oil prices are up 13%, while a broader commodity basket, as tracked by the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSE:DBC) is 6% higher.
自年初以來，油價上漲了13％，而景順數據庫大宗商品指數追蹤基金（紐約證券交易所代碼：DBC）追蹤的更廣泛的大宗商品籃子上漲了6％。
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Photo: Shutterstock
照片：Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。