5 Reasons To Buy Duolingo: This Analyst Sees 46.5% Upside Despite GenAI Competition
5 Reasons To Buy Duolingo: This Analyst Sees 46.5% Upside Despite GenAI Competition
Duolingo Inc (NASDAQ:DUOL) has been facing challenges in the market, with its stock down since the first-quarter earnings report on May 8.
自5月8日發佈第一季度業績以來，Duolingo Inc（納斯達克股票代碼：DUOL）一直面臨市場挑戰，其股票一直處於下跌狀態。
Chart: Benzinga Pro
圖表：Benzinga Pro
Despite this, JPMorgan analyst Bryan M. Smilek remains optimistic about the company's future.
儘管如此，摩根大通分析師布萊恩·斯米萊克仍然對公司的未來持樂觀態度。
Smilek maintains an Overweight rating on Duolingo stock. His price target of $275 suggests a potential upside of 46.5% from the current price.
Smilek維持對Duolingo股票的增持評級。他的目標股價爲275美元，表明可能比當前價格上漲46.5％。
5 Reasons To Buy Duolingo Stock
購買 Duolingo 股票的 5 個理由
Smilek recently shared insights into Duolingo's performance and the reasons behind his bullish outlook on the stock. In a research note, he cited several key reasons that could drive the stock's performance in the coming months.
Smilek最近分享了對Duolingo表現的見解以及他看漲該股的原因。在一份研究報告中，他列舉了可能推動該股未來幾個月表現的幾個關鍵原因。
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Solid Q1 Results: Duolingo shares have dipped since Q1 earnings, despite the fact that they were solid and included a raised 2024 guidance. Smilek notes that 2QTD DAU growth has accelerated "from +54% Y/Y in 1Q", with expectations of continued growth in the coming quarters. "Product optimizations & solid marketing support 50%+ growth in 3Q/4Q," he said.
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Revenue Potential of Duolingo Max: Smilek's model rebuild suggests that Duolingo Max could contribute significantly to revenue, with estimated contributions of $42.6 million in 2024 and $120.9 million in 2025. This, coupled with other growth drivers, could boost revenue and drive the stock price higher.
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Growth in Adj. EBITDA Margins: Duolingo is expected to achieve ~39% incremental Adj. EBITDA margins in 2024, indicating strong potential for profitability and margin expansion.
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Expansion into New Verticals: The company's investments in English learning and new verticals could unlock significant opportunities. Such investments could extend the lifetime value of customers and drive acquisition, engagement, and retention.
- GenAI Competition Mitigated by Duolingo's Strengths: While competition from Generative AI (GenAI) remains a long-term risk, Smilek is confident in Duolingo's positioning. The online education sector broadly believes that "GenAI competition could impact Duolingo's engagement & growth." However, Smilek says Duolingo's deep data moat, proven efficacy, gamification, personalization, and strong brand should support demand and limit competitive pressures.
- 穩健的第一季度業績：自第一季度收益以來，Duolingo的股價一直在下跌，儘管股價表現穩健，並且包括了上調的2024年預期。Smilek指出，第二季度每日活躍用戶增長 “已從第一季度的同比增長54％” 加速，預計未來幾個季度將繼續增長。他說：“產品優化和穩健的營銷支持了第三季度/第四季度50％以上的增長。”
- Duolingo Max的收入潛力：Smilek的模型重建表明，Duolingo Max可能對收入做出重大貢獻，預計2024年的貢獻爲4,260萬美元，2025年爲1.209億美元。再加上其他增長動力，可能會增加收入並推動股價上漲。
- 調整後的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率增長：預計Duolingo將在2024年實現約39％的調整後息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率增長，這表明盈利和利潤擴張的潛力巨大。
- 向新垂直領域擴張：該公司對英語學習和新垂直領域的投資可能會帶來重大機遇。此類投資可以延長客戶的終身價值，推動客戶獲取、參與和留存。
- Duolingo的優勢緩解了GenAI的競爭：儘管來自生成式人工智能（GenAI）的競爭仍然是一種長期風險，但Smilek對Duolingo的定位充滿信心。在線教育行業普遍認爲，“GenAI的競爭可能會影響Duolingo的參與度和增長。”但是，Smilek表示，Duolingo的深度數據護城河、久經考驗的功效、遊戲化、個性化和強大的品牌應能支持需求並限制競爭壓力。
Smilek's bullish thesis on Duolingo is based on several key factors, including solid Q1 results, the revenue potential of Duolingo Max, growth in Adj. EBITDA margins, expansion into new verticals, and the company's ability to mitigate GenAI competition.
Smilek對Duolingo的看漲論點基於幾個關鍵因素，包括穩健的第一季度業績、Duolingo Max的收入潛力、調整後的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率的增長、向新的垂直領域的擴張以及該公司緩解GenAI競爭的能力。
Investors may consider Smilek's analysis and the growth prospects he outlines as they evaluate Duolingo as a potential investment opportunity.
投資者在評估Duolingo是潛在的投資機會時，可能會考慮Smilek的分析和他概述的增長前景。
Image: Shutterstock
圖片：Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。