There's been a notable change in appetite for Coherus BioSciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHRS) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 16% to US$1.90. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$77m, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 2,466%, coming in at US$0.83 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
After the latest results, the consensus from Coherus BioSciences' six analysts is for revenues of US$257.6m in 2024, which would reflect a definite 15% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 93% to US$0.035. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$261.9m and US$0.64 per share in losses. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Coherus BioSciences'future looks a little different to the past, with a considerable decrease in the loss per share forecasts in particular.
The average price target held steady at US$8.50, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Coherus BioSciences, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$12.00 and the most bearish at US$4.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 4.0% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 19% decline in revenue until the end of 2024. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 18% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Coherus BioSciences to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Coherus BioSciences' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$8.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Coherus BioSciences going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Coherus BioSciences (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.