Shareholders might have noticed that Village Farms International, Inc. (NASDAQ:VFF) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.0% to US$1.26 in the past week. Village Farms International beat revenue forecasts by a solid 12%, hitting US$79m. Statutory losses also blew out, with the loss per share reaching US$0.03, some 33% bigger than the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Village Farms International

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Village Farms International's four analysts is for revenues of US$318.3m in 2024. This would reflect a credible 6.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 76% to US$0.06. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$303.3m and losses of US$0.065 per share in 2024. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrades to both revenue and loss per share forecasts for this year.

The consensus price target rose 14% to US$2.13, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for next year. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Village Farms International at US$2.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$1.50. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Village Farms International's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Village Farms International's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 8.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Village Farms International's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Village Farms International going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Village Farms International has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.