Vasta Platform Limited (NASDAQ:VSTA) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.0% to US$3.61 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It was an okay result overall, with revenues coming in at R$461m, roughly what the analysts had been expecting. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Vasta Platform

Following the latest results, Vasta Platform's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of R$1.65b in 2024. This would be a credible 6.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$1.74b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$0.84 in 2024. So we can see that while the consensus made a minor downgrade to revenue estimates, it no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that the market is now more focused on revenue after the latest result.

There's been no real change to the consensus price target of US$5.13, with Vasta Platform seemingly executing in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Vasta Platform, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$6.18 and the most bearish at US$4.01 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Vasta Platform's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last three years. Compare this to the 79 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Vasta Platform is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their revenue estimates for next year. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. The consensus price target held steady at US$5.13, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

We have estimates for Vasta Platform from its four analysts out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Vasta Platform's balance sheet, and whether we think Vasta Platform is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.