Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Smith Micro Software, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMSI) Price Target After Its Latest Report
Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Smith Micro Software, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMSI) Price Target After Its Latest Report
It's been a pretty great week for Smith Micro Software, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMSI) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to US$2.60 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$5.8m, statutory losses exploded to US$3.28 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
對於史密斯微軟件公司(納斯達克股票代碼:SMSI)的股東來說,這是相當不錯的一週,自公佈最新季度業績以來,其股價在本週飆升了11%,至2.60美元。總體而言,這是一個相當糟糕的業績;雖然收入符合預期,爲580萬美元,但法定虧損激增至每股3.28美元。根據結果,分析師更新了他們的盈利模式,很高興知道他們是否認爲公司的前景發生了巨大變化,或者業務是否照舊。根據這些結果,我們收集了最新的法定預測,以了解分析師是否改變了盈利模式。
Taking into account the latest results, the three analysts covering Smith Micro Software provided consensus estimates of US$29.3m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a considerable 18% decline over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 47% to US$2.67. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$30.3m and losses of US$2.70 per share in 2024.
考慮到最新業績,涵蓋史密斯微軟件的三位分析師提供了共識估計,2024年收入爲2930萬美元,這將反映出過去12個月中18%的顯著下降。預計每股虧損將在不久的將來大幅減少,縮小47%至2.67美元。在此業績公佈之前,分析師一直在模擬2024年的收入爲3,030萬美元,每股虧損爲2.70美元。
The analysts have cut their price target 11% to US$14.67per share, signalling that the declining revenue and ongoing losses are contributing to the lower valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Smith Micro Software, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$24.00 and the most bearish at US$8.00 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
分析師已將目標股價下調11%,至每股14.67美元,這表明收入下降和持續虧損是估值下降的原因。但是,固定單一價格目標可能是不明智的,因爲共識目標實際上是分析師目標股價的平均值。因此,一些投資者喜歡查看估計範圍,看看對公司的估值是否有任何分歧。對史密斯微軟件的看法有所不同,最看漲的分析師將其估值爲24.00美元,最看跌的爲每股8.00美元。由於目標股價範圍如此之廣,幾乎可以肯定,分析師押注基礎業務的業績差異很大。因此,根據共識目標股價做出決策可能不是一個好主意,畢竟共識目標價只是如此廣泛的估計值的平均值。
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 23% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 2.3% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 13% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Smith Micro Software's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
現在從大局來看,我們理解這些預測的方法之一是了解它們與過去的業績和行業增長估計相比如何。這些估計表明,收入預計將放緩,預計到2024年底年化下降23%。這表明與過去五年的2.3%的年增長率相比大幅下降。相比之下,我們的數據表明,在可預見的將來,預計同一行業的其他公司(有分析師報道)的收入每年將增長13%。很明顯,史密斯微軟件的收入預計將大大低於整個行業。
The Bottom Line
底線
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
要了解的最重要的一點是,分析師重申了明年的每股虧損預期。不利的一面是,他們還下調了收入預期,預測表明他們的表現將比整個行業差。此外,分析師還下調了目標股價,這表明最新消息加劇了人們對業務內在價值的悲觀情緒。
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Smith Micro Software going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
根據這種思路,我們認爲該業務的長期前景比明年的收益重要得多。在Simply Wall St,我們有分析師對史密斯微軟件到2026年的全方位估計,你可以在我們的平台上免費看到這些估計。
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Smith Micro Software (1 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.
別忘了可能仍然存在風險。例如,我們已經確定了你應該注意的史密斯微軟件的4個警告信號(其中一個不容忽視)。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。