The quarterly results for Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ZVRA) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues of US$3.4m came in 8.9% below estimates, but statutory losses were well contained with a per-share loss of US$0.40 being some 16% smaller than what the analysts were predicting. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Zevra Therapeutics after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, Zevra Therapeutics' six analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$28.3m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 37% to US$1.61 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$29.3m and losses of US$1.59 per share in 2024.

There was no real change to the average price target of US$19.00, suggesting that the revisions to revenue estimates are not expected to have a long-term impact on Zevra Therapeutics' valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Zevra Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$24.00 and the most bearish at US$15.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Zevra Therapeutics' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 15% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Zevra Therapeutics is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Zevra Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Zevra Therapeutics you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.