As you might know, Airbnb, Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) just kicked off its latest first-quarter results with some very strong numbers. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.9% to hit US$2.1b. Airbnb also reported a statutory profit of US$0.41, which was an impressive 77% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Airbnb after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Airbnb

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Airbnb's 37 analysts is for revenues of US$11.2b in 2024. This reflects a solid 9.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 42% to US$4.50 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$11.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.32 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Airbnb's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$152, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Airbnb analyst has a price target of US$200 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$80.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Airbnb's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 12% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 29% p.a. growth over the last three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.7% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Airbnb is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Airbnb's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$152, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Airbnb going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Airbnb Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.