Investors in TEGNA Inc. (NYSE:TGNA) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.2% to close at US$15.03 following the release of its first-quarter results. Revenues were US$714m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$1.06, an impressive 147% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for TEGNA

Following the latest results, TEGNA's six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$3.17b in 2024. This would be a solid 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 14% to US$3.64. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.23b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.08 in 2024. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the nice increase in earnings per share expectations following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$18.40, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values TEGNA at US$21.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$15.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that TEGNA's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.7% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that TEGNA is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around TEGNA's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for TEGNA going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for TEGNA (2 don't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.