Core views:
Benefiting from the scale-up of new energy installations, performance continues to grow rapidly. The company released the 2023 annual report and the 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 456 million yuan, +26.89% year over year, net profit of 84.24 million yuan, +25.59% year over year. By business: (1) The power forecasting business position was stable, the annual revenue growth was 3.15%, and the number of power plants served by the company increased by 632. As of the end of 2023, the number of service customers was 3,590, and the market share continued to lead the industry; (2) grid-connected control business, power grid new energy management system business, innovation The business expanded rapidly, and revenue in 2023 increased by 75.81%, 125%, and 124.62% year-on-year respectively. 24Q1 achieved revenue of 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.75%, and realized net profit of 12.34 million yuan to mother, an increase of 18.71% over the previous year. The main reason is that the new energy installed market continues to be booming. According to data released by the Energy Administration, China added about 45.74 GW of PV connected to the grid in 24Q1, an increase of 36% over the previous year, and wind power added about 15.5 GW, an increase of 49% over the previous year.
The construction of the electricity spot market is accelerating, and the company is expected to create new growth points. The electricity trading market in several provinces will enter the trial settlement operation stage in 2024, and the electricity trading market in many provinces is expected to enter the long-term operation stage in 2025. The company positions electricity trading products as tool products. It mainly provides product support such as transaction forecast data and auxiliary decision-making strategies for market-based electricity trading entities. It is currently working in product sales in provinces such as Shanxi, Guangdong, Shandong, and Gansu. As the industry continues to advance in the future, the company is based on existing technical advantages and business layouts such as energy storage, microgrids, and virtual power plants, which is conducive to deeply grasping the power supply and demand situation and fully benefiting.
Profit forecasting and investment suggestions: Considering that the company's electricity marketization accelerates the rapid growth of electricity trading products and has broad prospects for the development of energy storage and virtual power plants, we expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 581/7.25/884 million yuan, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, the company will be given 12.0x PS in 2024, with a corresponding reasonable value of 70.30 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The scale of new energy installations falls short of expectations; the risk of increased market competition; the advancement of electricity marketization falls short of expectations; product development progress falls short of expectations.