Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ:CROX) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish. Crocs beat earnings, with revenues hitting US$939m, ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share outperforming analyst reckonings by a solid 13%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Crocs

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Crocs' twelve analysts is for revenues of US$4.14b in 2024. This reflects a reasonable 3.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 9.0% to US$11.92 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.14b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.26 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$153, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Crocs analyst has a price target of US$190 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$124. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Crocs' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Crocs' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 30% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Crocs.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Crocs. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Crocs' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Crocs. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Crocs going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Crocs is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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