XIAOMI(1810.HK):EXPECT STRONG EARNINGS AHEAD; RAISE TP TO HK$23.77
XIAOMI(1810.HK):EXPECT STRONG EARNINGS AHEAD; RAISE TP TO HK$23.77
Xiaomi will report 1Q24 results in late May. We estimate 1Q revenue/adj. net profit to deliver 26%/67% YoY growth to RMB75.2bn/5.4bn, 5%/19% above consensus, backed by strong smartphone shipments, better GPM across all segments and prudent expense controls. Looking ahead, we believe Xiaomi's global smartphone share gain will continue in LATAM/EMEA/SEA/EU markets backed by multiple product launches in 2H24E, and margin shall remain resilient given rising BOM costs are offset by premiumization and an improving mix. Overall, we are positive on the strong momentum of Xiaomi's smart EV business and resilient core segments. We raise FY24-26E EPS by 11-21% and lift SOTP-based TP to HK$23.77 to reflect stronger smartphone, EV momentum and better margins. We are looking to see more details on EV progress, AI strategy and product pipeline.
小米將在5月下旬公佈24年第一季度的業績。我們估計，第一季度收入/調整後淨利潤將同比增長26％/67％，至人民幣752億元/54億美元，比市場預期高出5％/19％，這得益於強勁的智能手機出貨量、所有細分市場的GPM改善以及審慎的支出控制。展望未來，我們認爲，在 2H24E 中推出的多款產品的支持下，小米在拉美/EMEA/SEA/EU市場的全球智能手機份額將繼續增長，鑑於物料清單成本的上漲被高端化和組合的改善所抵消，利潤率將保持彈性。總體而言，我們對小米智能電動汽車業務和彈性核心細分市場的強勁勢頭持樂觀態度。我們將FY24-26E 每股收益提高了11-21％，並將基於SOTP的目標股價上調至23.77港元，以反映智能手機和電動汽車的強勁勢頭和更高的利潤率。我們希望看到有關電動汽車進展、人工智能戰略和產品管道的更多細節。
Smartphone: strong shipments with better-than-feared margin. Canalys reported Xiaomi's global shipments increased 33% YoY (vs 10% YoY for the industry) with market share of 14% in 1Q24 (vs 11% in 1Q23). Xiaomi's 1Q24 shipment strength was driven by both domestic and overseas market demand. We estimate a flattish ASP in 1Q24 and GPM to trend down QoQ to 14.5% (vs 16.4% in 4Q23) due to memory/component cost hikes. Looking ahead, we are positive on Xiaomi's global share gain momentum and multiple new model launches in 2H24E (e.g. Xiaomi 15, Mix Fold). We expect Xiaomi's shipments to increase 14% YoY to 167mn units in FY24E and rebound 2%/3% YoY to 170mn/175mn in FY25E/26E.
智能手機：出貨量強勁，利潤率好於預期。Canalys報告稱，小米的全球出貨量同比增長33％（同比增長10％），24年第一季度的市場份額爲14％（而23年第一季度爲11％）。小米24年第一季度的出貨強度受國內外市場需求的推動。我們估計，由於內存/組件成本上漲，24年第一季度的ASP將持平，GPM環比將下降至14.5％（而23年第四季度爲16.4％）。展望未來，我們對小米全球份額的增長勢頭以及在 2H24E 中推出的多款新車型（例如小米 15、Mix Fold）持樂觀態度。我們預計，小米的 FY24E 出貨量將同比增長14％，至1.67億臺，並在25E/26財年同比反彈2％/3％至1.7億/1.75億臺。
AIoT/Internet: an improving AIoT mix and resilient Internet revenue. We estimate AIoT/Internet revenue to increase 19%/7% YoY in 1Q24E (vs -5%/ +10% YoY in 4Q23), mainly due to strong Pads/home appliance sales and pre-installations/ads revenue that benefited from an expanding global SP user base. We expect AIoT GPM to reach 18.5% in 1Q (vs 13.9% in 4Q23) on higher Pads and home appliance revenue contribution, while Internet GPM will likely remain relatively stable at 75.0% (vs 75.7% in 4Q23).
AIoT/互聯網：不斷改善的AIoT組合和彈性的互聯網收入。我們估計，1Q24E 的人工智能物聯網/互聯網收入將同比增長19％/7％（相比於23年第四季度同比增長5％/10％），這主要是由於受益於全球標準普用戶群不斷擴大的平板電腦/家用電器銷售和預安裝/廣告收入的強勁。我們預計，由於平板電腦和家用電器收入的增加，第一季度AIoT的GPM將達到18.5％（23年第四季度爲13.9％），而互聯網GPM可能會保持相對穩定的75.0％（而23年第四季度爲75.7％）。
Our FY24-26E EPS are 17%/25% above consensus; Reiterate BUY. Xiaomi's share price rallied 23% over the past month, driven by stronger SU7 orders, shipment deliveries and positive consumer feedback. We expect its upcoming 1Q24E earnings will share more updates on EV-related progress, AI strategy and product pipeline. Reiterate BUY with a new SOTP-based TP of HK$23.77.
我們的 FY24-26E 每股收益比市場預期高出17％/25％；重申買入。受強勁的SU7訂單、出貨量和積極的消費者反饋的推動，小米的股價在過去一個月中上漲了23％。我們預計，其即將發佈的 1Q24E 業績將分享有關電動汽車相關進展、人工智能戰略和產品管道的更多最新情況。重申 “買入”，以 SOTP 爲基礎的新目標價爲 23.77 港元。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。