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TK GROUP(HOLDINGS)LIMITED(2283.HK):ATTRACTIVE AND DEFENSIVE INDUSTRIAL PLAY

TK GROUP(HOLDINGS)LIMITED(2283.HK):ATTRACTIVE AND DEFENSIVE INDUSTRIAL PLAY

東江集團(控股)有限公司(2283.HK):具有吸引力和防禦性的工業企業
信达国际 ·  05/08

Expects recovery in FY24E, strong balance sheet

預計 FY24E 將出現復甦,資產負債表強勁

We had an operational update meeting with TK's management in Hong Kong this Monday (May 6). TK's FY23 revenue and net profit was down 14.6%/10.0% Yoy respectively to HK$1,945mn/HK$204mn, due to weak downstream demand. However, blended GM managed to grow 2.7 ppts Yoy to 26.4% (the highest since FY20), thanks to mold fabrication GM soared 10 ppts Yoy to 37.0% (similar to FY17 and FY18 level) and set off the 1.4 ppts Yoy drop in plastic products GM. The huge increment in mold fabrication GM was mainly lead by i) lower raw material cost, ii) improved operating efficiency through automation and iii) RMB depreciation during the period. We expect mold fabrication GM would still be >30% driven by operating efficiency , while plastics components GM would be ~mid-20s in FY24E driven by downstream demand recovery and new clients' order ramp up. TK's current mold fabrication and plastics components segment utilization rose to >90%/>50% (vs. ~83%/<50% in FY23). With higher utilization rate, we expect this would benefit TK's result to recover, accompanied by gradual GM improvement.

本週一(5月6日)我們在香港與TK的管理層舉行了業務最新情況會議。由於下游需求疲軟,東江23財年的收入和淨利潤分別下降14.6%/10.0%,至19.45億港元/2.04億港元。但是,混合通用汽車成功同比增長2.7個百分點至26.4%(自2020財年以來的最高水平),這要歸功於模具製造通用汽車同比飆升10個百分點至37.0%(與2017財年和18財年的水平相似),並引發了通用塑料製品同比下降1.4個百分點。模具製造通用汽車的大幅增長主要是由於 i) 降低原材料成本,ii) 通過自動化提高運營效率以及 iii) 在此期間人民幣貶值所致。我們預計,受下游需求復甦和新客戶訂單增加的推動,模具製造通用汽車在 FY24E 中仍將保持在 20 多歲的水平。TK目前的模具製造和塑料部件板塊利用率上升至> 90%/> 50%(相比之下,23財年的約83%/

TK's financial position remains strong, with net operating cash inflow up 20% Yoy to HK$445mn in FY23, and net cash position at ~HK$1.1bn (~72% of TK's market cap), which enabled TK to raise its dividend payout ratio to 80% level in FY23. With CAPEX remains low in FY24E, we expect payout ratio would be able to stay >50%.

TK的財務狀況仍然強勁,23財年的淨運營現金流入量同比增長20%,達到4.45億港元,淨現金狀況約爲11億港元(約佔TK市值的72%),這使TK得以在23財年將其股息支付率提高到80%的水平。由於 FY24E 的資本支出仍然很低,我們預計派息率將能夠保持在50%以上。

FY24E main growth drivers: Consumer electronics recovery + electronic atomizers' order ramp up + new clients' contribution

FY24E 的主要增長動力:消費電子產品復甦 + 電子霧化器的訂單增加 + 新客戶的貢獻

TK's order book came in at HK$830mn (+2.0% Yoy) in FY23, which was mainly contributed by automotive, medical & healthcare, which accounted for 46% of total order book. Management shared that order book further increase to ~HK$1bn in Apr, which we believe has set up a good fundamental for TK's recovery in FY24E & FY25E. Revenue from electronic atomizers and automobiles each grew 63%/23% Yoy to ~HK$200mn/HK$370mn in FY23 and took up 10.5%/18.6% of total revenue.

TK在23財年的訂單量爲8.3億港元(同比增長2.0%),這主要來自汽車、醫療和醫療保健,佔總訂單量的46%。管理層表示,4月份的訂單量進一步增加至約10億港元,我們認爲這爲TK在 FY24E 和 FY25E 中的復甦奠定了良好的基礎。電子霧化器和汽車的收入分別在23財年同比增長63%/23%至約2億港元/3.7億港元,佔總收入的10.5%/18.6%。

Order ramp up from electronic atomizers, continue to support TK's revenue growth, while smartphones & wearables and automobiles would continue to play a part. TK is still optimistic towards its electronic atomizers, as it is not only being driven by e-cigarettes but also can be used in medical devices to atomize drugs into micron-sized aerosols.

電子霧化器的訂單增加,繼續支持TK的收入增長,而智能手機、可穿戴設備和汽車將繼續發揮作用。TK仍然對其電子霧化器持樂觀態度,因爲它不僅由電子煙驅動,而且還可用於醫療器械,將藥物霧化成微米大小的氣溶膠。

TK continues to diversify its client portfolio, and having successfully tapped into a leading global AR company (we beliver to be Meta), a leading brand of bone conduction earphone and a renowned wearable camera company (we believe to be Insta360 with ~50% global market share in consumptive panoramic camera market in 2022) in China.

TK繼續分散其客戶組合,併成功地在中國聘請了一家領先的全球增強現實公司(我們相信是Meta)、骨傳導耳機的領先品牌和一家知名的可穿戴相機公司(我們相信是Insta360,2022年在消費類全景相機市場佔有約50%的全球市場份額)。

FY24E CAPEX stay low, ample cash for potential M&A and share buyback

FY24E 資本支出保持在較低水平,爲潛在的併購和股票回購提供充足的現金

TK's FY23 CAPEX came in at ~HK$70mn and expects FY24E would be similar, in which ~40-50% would invest in Mexico (invest in a plastic component manufacturing plan based on current clients' needs), while remaining would be maintenance CAPEX. With ample cash on hand, TK is still seeking for M&A opportunities that would bring synergy to the group. Given its leading position in the industry, we still believe TK would enjoy a stronger bargaining power when suitable target emerges. Management also considers to kick off share buybacks when suitable.

TK的23財年資本支出約爲7000萬港元,預計 FY24E 將與之類似,其中約40-50%將投資於墨西哥(根據當前客戶的需求投資於塑料部件製造計劃),剩下的將是維護資本支出。由於手頭有充足的現金,TK仍在尋找能夠爲集團帶來協同效應的併購機會。鑑於其在行業中的領先地位,我們仍然相信,當合適的目標出現時,TK將享有更強的議價能力。管理層還考慮在適當時啓動股票回購。

Undemanding valuation on healthy financial position and solid fundamentals, Maintain BUY

由於財務狀況良好,基本面穩健,估值要求不高,維持買入

We estimate TK's revenue and net profit to grow 12.5%/18.5% CAGR in FY23-26E, it's FY24E 6.1x PE (~1 s.d. below its average PE since listed in end-2013, and ~50% discount to Hong Kong and international peers) looks undemanding to us. We arrive TK's new TP at HK$2.44 which translates to FY24E 7.8x PE (35% discount to peers) and near its average PE since listing.

我們估計,在 FY23-26E 中,TK的收入和淨利潤將增長12.5%/18.5%的複合年增長率,FY24E 的市盈率爲6.1倍(比2013年底上市以來的平均市盈率低約1秒,與香港和國際同行相比折扣約50%)對我們來說似乎並不苛刻。我們得出東江的新目標股價爲2.44港元,相當於 FY24E 市盈率爲7.8倍(同業折扣35%),接近上市以來的平均市盈率。

With CAPEX expected to stay relatively low in FY24E (vs. FY16-FY22), we expect TK's >50% payout ratio can be maintained in FY24E, this translates into 10.8%/13.6% dividend yield in FY23/24E. With ~HK$1.1bn net cash on hand (~72% of total market cap) in FY23, and expect stable cash inflow ahead would provide a solid foundation for TK's long-term development. In view of TK's strong financial position, we still regard TK as a good defensive play in industrial universe, we reiterate TK's rating at BUY. As TK's net profit normally skewed to 2H (40/60 split on average in FY17-19), based on our current FY24E net profit forecast, we expect TK would be able to issue positive profit alert in late 2Q24/ early 3Q24. With multiple catalysts ahead and healthy financial position, we expect TK would receive increasing investors' interest before 1H24 result (due in late-Aug)

由於 FY24E 的資本支出預計將保持相對較低的水平(與 FY16-FY22 相比),我們預計 FY24E 中TK的派息率可以維持在50%以上,這意味着23/24E財年的股息收益率爲10.8%/13.6%。23財年手頭淨現金約11億港元(約佔總市值的72%),預計未來穩定的現金流入將爲TK的長期發展奠定堅實的基礎。鑑於TK的強勁財務狀況,我們仍然將TK視爲工業領域中不錯的防禦工具,我們重申TK的評級爲買入。根據我們目前的 FY24E 淨利潤預測,由於東江的淨利潤通常傾向於下半年(FY17-19 平均分配40/60),我們預計東江將能夠在24年第二季度末/24年第三季度初發布正盈利預警。由於未來有多種催化劑和健康的財務狀況,我們預計TK將在24年上半年業績(8月下旬公佈)之前獲得越來越多的投資者的興趣

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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