BANK OF NANJING(601009):4Q23 AND 1Q24 EARNINGS GROWTH LARGELY IN LINE
BANK OF NANJING(601009):4Q23 AND 1Q24 EARNINGS GROWTH LARGELY IN LINE
BONJ's scale will expand decently in 2024. We expect its loan and deposit will increase 15% YoY and 9% YoY in 2024, against YoY growths of 16.2% and 10.7% in 2023, mainly thanks to its active business expansion strategy and a positive shift in PBOC's monetary policy stance.Bank of Nanjing (BONJ)'s attributable net profit increased 0.5% YoY in 2023, largely in line with our expectation. Its attributable net profit declined 6.4% YoY in 4Q23, mainly due to slow growth in operating income, lower than 2.1% YoY growth in 9M23. BONJ resumed earnings growth in 1Q24 with its net profit increasing 5.1% YoY in 1Q24. It maintained an excellent assets quality as its NPL is at the low-end level among peers. We noted that its NPL ratio was 0.83% in 1Q24, lower than 0.9% in 2023 and 0.9% in 2022. The risk for LGFV was quite low thanks to the solid financial position of Jiangsu provincial government and local governments. As of end-March 2024, its loans/deposits increased 6.8%/3.7% from end-2023. Its ROAE remained at the high- end level among peers in 2023. BONJ is now trading at 0.63x 2024E P/B, which, in our view, is undervalued. Maintain BUY rating.
南京銀行（BONJ）的應占淨利潤在2023年同比增長0.5％，基本符合我們的預期。其應占淨利潤在23年第四季度同比下降6.4％，這主要是由於營業收入增長緩慢，低於23年9月的2.1％。日本央行在24年第一季度恢復了收益增長，其淨利潤在24年第一季度同比增長了5.1％。由於其不良貸款在同行中處於低端水平，它保持了良好的資產質量。我們注意到，其不良貸款率在24年第一季度爲0.83％，低於2023年的0.9％和2022年的0.9％。得益於江蘇省政府和地方政府的穩健財務狀況，LGFV的風險相當低。截至2024年3月底，其貸款/存款較2023年底增長了6.8％/3.7％。2023年，其投資回報率在同行中保持在高端水平。日本央行目前的市盈率爲2024年的0.63倍，在我們看來，該市盈率被低估了。維持買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
We expect BONJ to maintain excellent asset quality in 2024. We noted that its NPL ratios were 0.9%/0.83% in 2023/1Q24, against 0.9% in 2022. We expect its NPL ratio to drop to 0.82% in 2024, still at the low-end level among peers. Its special mention ratio dropped from 1.17% in 2023 to 1.04% in 1Q24. Meanwhile, its allowance to NPLs may reach 357% at end-December 2024, down from 360.6% at end-December 2023.
我們預計，日本央行將在2024年保持良好的資產質量。我們注意到，其不良貸款率在2023/第一季度爲0.9％/0.83％，而2022年爲0.9％。我們預計其不良貸款率將在2024年降至0.82％，在同行中仍處於低端水平。其特別提及率從2023年的1.17％下降到24年第一季度的1.04％。同時，其對不良貸款的補貼可能在2024年12月底達到357％，低於2023年12月底的360.6％。
BONJ's scale will expand decently in 2024. We expect its loan and deposit will increase 15% YoY and 9% YoY in 2024, against YoY growths of 16.2% and 10.7% in 2023, mainly thanks to its active business expansion strategy and a positive shift in PBOC's monetary policy stance.
日本央行的規模將在2024年大幅擴大。我們預計，其貸款和存款將在2024年同比增長15％，同比增長9％，而2023年的同比增長16.2％和10.7％，這主要歸功於其積極的業務擴張戰略和中國人民銀行貨幣政策立場的積極轉變。
NIM will decline in 2024. BONJ's NIM decreased 15bps YoY to 2.04% in 2023. As BONJ will further strengthen its financial support to the real economy, its NIM may drop another 10bps in 2024.
NIM 將在 2024 年下降。日本央行的淨資產收益率在2023年同比下降了15個點子至2.04％。由於日本央行將進一步加強對實體經濟的財政支持，其國民收入可能在2024年再下降10個點子。
Valuation
估價
We expect its ROAE to reach 12.6% in 2024. In our view, given its solid fundamentals, BONJ should trade at high-end valuation among its joint-stock bank and city commercial bank peers. We raised our target price from RMB11.54 to RMB11.76, based on 0.80x 2024E P/B. Maintain BUY rating.
我們預計其投資回報率將在2024年達到12.6％。我們認爲，鑑於其穩健的基本面，日本央行應在股份制銀行和城市商業銀行同行之間以高端估值進行交易。根據2024年的0.80倍市盈率，我們將目標股價從11.54元人民幣上調至11.76元人民幣。維持買入評級。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
